Curious why Germany by way of Angela Merkel, has not yet responded officially to Mario's promises to break Article 123 if needed, in order to preserve the Goldman bonus pool, even if it means flooding Germany with inflation - something that historically has taken her at most a few hours? Better yet, curious why Mario Draghi picked exactly today to go ahead and defy Germany knowing full well there would be no official response for quite a while? Here's why.
Merkel off on vacation after turbulent start to 2012
German Chancellor Angela Merkel kicked off her summer break with a visit to the Bayreuth festival on Wednesday. She heads off on holiday after a tough first half of 2012 and with 2013 elections looming around the corner.
There won't be a summer press conference this year. In recent years, Merkel had sat down with the media before taking off on holiday. This year though, she'll be skipping the event altogether, avoiding any uncomfortable questions. She's off to go hiking with her husband, finally enjoying a couple of days without cabinet meetings, EU summits or crisis talks.
The vacation will start with the Wagner opera festival in Bayreuth. This year, it'll be the Flying Dutchman – a story of a captain, roaming the seas on a ghost ship after having failed to make it around the Cape of Good Hope. Berlin, too, had its share of political storm and turmoil this year; the first six months of 2012 were anything but plain sailing.
And now we know: going forward the best time to go long the EUR for short but violent rallies is the hour, if not minute, when the German chancellor leaves for vacation. Guaranteed money maker. Now the only question is how long after that trade does one have until the EUR has to be shorted all in in anticipation of the inevitable German response...