Initial Claims Miss Consensus, Prior Bad Data Amplified, 103,000 Unemployed Fall Off Extended Benefits

Another day, another chance for the BLS to fudge jobs data by revising last week's claims miss to an even worse number: sure enough last week's -428K drop was just revised to -432K. Which means that this week's consensus miss, which was at 420K, is irrelevant, with the weekly number coming at 423K because all headlines will blare that claims actually declined by 9K. The game has become so old (and we mean old: the BLS has been doing this very same fudge for 2 years in a row now) we are stunned anyone falls for it. And one thing that will also most certainly be ignored is that the 423K number is really 427K because as the BLS reported, a -3,776 drop in claims in Texas was due to "Fewer layoffs due to holiday" - well the holiday is over. Lastly, and most troubling for the economy is that another massive 103,000 people dropped off extended benefit claims in one week. Just as troubling is that 1.7 million people have dropped off the government's dole in the past year as can be seen in the chart below: these are people that haven't gotten a job, they have just stopped being counted by the govt.