Inside The Student Loan Debt Bubble

We have long discussed the rapid rotation of credit growth from housing and credit card to auto loans and now student debt as the US is not deleveraging in reality at all. A recent report from the Kanasas City Fed notes that in the last 7 years, student loan debt has grown at a staggering 13.9% annual rate. This rise in debt has been accompanied by a notable rise in the percentage of delinquencies (over 10.5% and 8.8% over 120 days past due) as the complex web of the student loan market structure strangles hope for many willing learners. The clear message is that student loans present problems for some borrowers, though, at the same time, the analysis suggests that student loans do not yet impose a significant burden on society from their fiscal impact - even though rather stunningly the Federal government is now 93% of the market. We would add that high student loan debt and its associated payment burdens have left many wondering if the value of a college education outweighs the costs - especially as we note that less than 40% of borrowers are under 30 and more than a third still owe in their 40s.

The 'simple' market structure of the student-loan business - though we note at its root, 93% of loans are funded by the Federal government...

 

As the crisis hit in 2007, so the rate of enrollment rose notably and has accelerated...

 

and at the same time, delinquencies have surged...

 

Full report here:

rwp 12-05