ISM Prints At 52.7 On Expectations 51.8, Up From 50.8 Previous; Employment Index Drops

Modest beat with prices paid in line with expectations at 45, New Orders rising from 52.4 to 56.7, but the employment index mirroring the Chicago PMI decline and dropping from 53.5 to 51.8: taken in conjunction with today's Initial Claims, probably not the best way to enter the NFP number, yet we are somehow convinced the final NFP print will be 4 std devs above the mean Wall Street consensus. In other news, the headline number is the highest since June. Curiously, and as always happens in strange times, exports increased and imports decreased. One wonders just how realistic an export surge to imploding Europe or China really was in the past month really was.

The breakdown is as follows:

As for the global decoupling theme, we all know what a joke it is, but here it is visually courtesy of John Lohman:

And the always interesting survey respondents:

  • "Business still holding its own. Some growth in margin now that some of the raw materials prices have abated. Oil is pushing $100 so that has not been favorable." (Chemical Products)
  • "Orders for the remaining two months have increased after an extended 'summer dip' in sales overall. We expect to finish the year approximately 10 percent above 2010." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "Seeing a slight slowdown in orders; could be related to the holidays." (Primary Metals)
  • "Material lead times are getting longer. Seems like no one is hiring. Trying to do twice the output with the same amount of people." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "Japanese auto production has returned to 100 percent, and domestic manufacturing continues to increase." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Oil exploration seems to be really picking up. Government is permitting again, so business is the busiest we've ever seen." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "The EPS ruling about higher fees for coal-generated electricity can have a huge, negative impact on our business if implemented in January 2012. We are at the peak of our seasonal demand push." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Thailand flood impacting our business. Honda and Toyota cut production forecasts, and we are chasing some components made in Thailand." (Transportation Equipment)