Leading Indicators Predict Another Fed Intervention (Or EPS Rediscovers Gravity)

For the last couple of decades, ECRI's leading indicators have provided a reasonable early warning for rising and falling forward EPS estimates. With the ECRI growth rate hovering near the July 2010 lows, having fallen considerably recently, it seems that either intervention (the new normal) will come in the form of QE3 (as it did the last time we were here in Q3 2010) or EPS estimates will start to collapse notably (in line with yesterday's perspective on the rolling-over of forward EPS expectations).

While we would not be surprised to see QE3 around the corner, it would seem a tough spin given recent GDP prints and the exuberance in equity markets and so perhaps (as we have been so clear about) we need an EPS flush-fest mark-down in stocks again as the opportunity for Bernanke's Put to get its strike shifted upwards. It is relatively clear though that incessant interventionist policy has once again broken valuation metrics and made reality harder and harder to discern.

h/t John Lohman


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