From Negative 5Y5Y To $2200 Gold?

For the first time on record (based on Bloomberg's data) 5-year / 5-year forward inflation expectations turned negative today. This kind of deflationary impulse has occurred twice in recent years and each time has been accompanied by dramatic Federal Reserve easing. The anticipation of the move by the Fed has caused Gold each time to surge higher on yet more expectations of the fiat-fiasco unwinding. Given the 5Y5Y inflation print currently, we would expect action from the Fed and one could argue that this would cause the price of Gold to rise to $2200 per ounce as the deleveraging continues.

The red arrows show the deflationary impulse (5Y5Y inflation is inverted) and the orange curve arrow shows the reaction function post Fed reaction to the blue arrow levels of the deflationary impulse.


Chart: Bloomberg