The Spanish Bailout In Context

In the context of the last 20 years of banking crises, the #Spailout would rank in the middle on the basis of cost relative to GDP. Despite all the talk of its size relative to some self-diagnosed capital needs, we wonder if EUR100bn is enough, and as JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes: given conditions in Spain, it might need to be higher. Other reservations include the implied subordination of government bondholders, since the EU presumably sees itself as a preferred lender to the Spanish government - which ha snow been pretty much confirmed by ISDA. Spain’s private sector is still in tough shape, so Spain may still have to opt for a sovereign rescue package in excess of EUR300 billion this year or next. In any case, this latest step does not otherwise change the cautious view the JPM CIO has on Spain given low growth, inter-regional capital flight and rising debt burdens across the Periphery.