Summarizing Italy's Catastrophic Predicament In 15 Simple Bullet Points

The irony about the blow up over the past month in "all things Italian" is that the facts about its sovereign debt and viability profile have always been available for anyone to not only see, but make the conclusion that the situation is unsustainable. The fact that so few dared to do so only confirms that affirmative confirmation bias that dominates within 99% of the investing population. Sites such as Zero Hedge and others had been warning for over a year that the Italian "contagion" (which is a misnomer: Italy's lack of viability is perfectly-self contained: it does not need Greece or Portugal to blow up, and can do so perfectly well on its own, but the punditry certainly needs a scapegoat, in this case the incremental layering of "revelations" about how insolvent Europe is) and we have long presented primary source data confirming just how precarious the house of cards is not only in Italy but everywhere else too. Regardless, no matter how conventional wisdom got to the big picture revelation of just how ugly Italy's reality is (and don't think for a minute that Spain is any better) the truth is that the cat is not only out of the bag, but is widely rampaging through the china store (no pun intended), high on speed and methadone. So for everyone who still wishes to know why the Italian jobs is very much hopeless absent the ECB stepping in an bailout out the country, below is a succinct list of 15 bullet points courtesy of The Telegraph, which explains all there is to know about the country's current predicament. In retrospect we certainly can not blame Tremonti for wanting to get the hell out of there.

The truth about Italy:

  • Morgan Stanley estimates net issuance should total 35 billion euros per year in 2012-2013, less than expect annual coupon payments of around €45 billion per year
  • A total of €157 billion in Italian government paper will fall due by the end of the year. Redemptions will peak in September, when €46 billion of BTP CTX bonds mature
  • Italy has raised €277.4 billion euros in debt so far in 2011, or 65.3% of its full-year target, the Treasury said - suggesting further issuance of €147.4 billion, according to Reuters calculations
  • Italy's public debt stood at €1,890 billion at the end of April, according to Bank of Italy figures. The public debt figure includes postal savings
  • Italian government bonds and short-term bills totaled €1,583 billion at the end of June according to Italian Treasury data. Their average term was 7.09 years
  • A one percentage point increase in Italy's debt yields adds about €3 billion euros to interest payments in the first year, and twice that in the second, the Bank of Italy has said
  • Italy forecast in April that 2011 debt servicing costs would total 4.8% of GDP, or about €77 billion
  • The International Monetary Fund estimated in April that 47% of Italian 2010 government debt was held abroad. Morgan Stanley last week estimated foreign holdings at 44%
  • Banks domiciled in Italy held €192 billion in Italian government securities at the end of May, Bank of Italy data showed last month. In the first quarter of 2011 they also held €589 billion euros in government securities on behalf of their clients
  • European Banking Authority data showed in July that Italy's five lending retail banks had a net direct exposure to Italian sovereign debt of €159 billion. Intesa Sanpaolo is the most exposed with €57.6 billion, followed by UniCredit with €47.5 billion
  • Morgan Stanley said domestic banks and insurance companies could quite easily buy net €60 billion a year in Italian government debt for the next few years
  • JP Morgan analysis said Italian banks will have to refinance €53 billion of maturing bonds in wholesale markets next year
  • The €600 billion Italian pension fund and insurance industry has increased its holdings of domestic government bonds by 10% in the last three years to 32% of assets, according to JP Morgan
  • Analysts estimate that an increase in the average cost of Italian public debt drives a similar rise in the cost of banks' bond issues
  • JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts estimate Italian banks' holdings of government bonds at around 6% of their assets - a higher figure than 5% for Spanish banks and second only within the euro zone to Greek banks' 10%

Source: Telegraph


No comments yet! Be the first to add yours.