Quiet day with FOMC minutes due out in the afternoon, Case Shiller confirming more worsening in housing, and Conference Board consumer confidence plunging in August. European headlines may once again reappear.
8:00: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on CNBC.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (June): Small gain? Models based on asking prices points to a small increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-city index during June. This would leave prices down 4.3% from a year earlier.
GS +0.2%; Consensus: flat; Last: flat.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (August): Likely drop. Goldman forecasts that the index of consumer confidence fell to 53.0 in August from 59.5 in July. This measure is less sensitive to financial market developments than the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment, but nevertheless looks likely to decline following the drop in stock prices.
GS: 53.0; Consensus: 52.0; Last: 59.5.MAP: 3
12:15: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota on the “Economic Outlook and a Reconsideration of Leverage Incentives.”
14:00: FOMC minutes (August 9 meeting): Easing options. In its statement after the August 9 meeting, the FOMC said that it had “discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability”. We therefore expect that the minutes will include more detail on the Fed’s easing options, and probably a discussion of the benefits and risks associated with each tool. Although Chairman Bernanke’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference did not include a discussion of easing options, the minutes may be a better place to present this material.