Today's Economic Data Docket - Retail Sales And Consumer Sentiment

Today's economic docket includes retail sales and consumer sentiment and business inventories. Bill Dudley makes more remarks on iPad edibility although he may provide some critical insight as to what we may expect two weeks from now at Jackson Hole.
8:30: Retail sales (July): Moderate growth. Despite a downbeat tone to many recent economic reports, chain-store sales results for July were reasonably healthy (though they hinted at a shift toward discount stores) and vehicle sales increased. Goldman forecasts moderate gains in the Census Bureau’s estimate of retail spending for the month.
Total: GS: +0.4%; Consensus: +0.5%; Last: +0.1%.
Ex-autos: GS: +0.1%; Consensus: +0.3%; Last: Flat. MAP: 4
Ex-autos, gas & building materials: GS: +0.2%; Last: +0.1%.
9:55: Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (August prelim): Downside risks. Following sharp declines in the daily Rasmussen and Gallup confidence indexes in recent weeks, Goldman expects the Consumer Sentiment index to fall to 57.0 for August. Consensus forecasts expect a much smaller drop.
GS: 57.0; Consensus: 62.0; Last: 63.7 (July final). MAP: 1
10:00: Business inventories (June). Not a market mover, but the non-auto retail inventory component could have implications for revisions to Q2 GDP growth.
Consensus: +0.5%; last +1.0%.
10.00: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at New York Fed headquarters. The speech is on the regional economy, but comments on national economic developments and monetary policy are possible as well (Q&A scheduled). The FOMC recently revised its blackout period rules to: “begins the Tuesday morning of the week prior to each regularly-scheduled FOMC meeting and ends at midnight Eastern Time on the Thursday following the meeting”. President Dudley would therefore be free to express his views on the outlook today.


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