Today's Events: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods And New Home Sales

8:30: Durable goods orders (December): Surge in aircraft orders. Goldman forecasts that durable goods orders increased by 4.0% (month-over-month) in December on a surge in civilian aircraft orders. Boeing booked 287 new aircraft orders during the month, up from 96 in November. This will very likely support growth in the headline figure. Softer growth in the main underlying components (ex-transport and “core” orders) is expected. Core durable goods shipments and durable manufacturing inventories could have implications for Q4 GDP, to be released Friday.

Total: GS: +4.0%; Consensus: +2.0%; Last: +3.7%.
Ex-transport: Consensus: +0.9%; Last: +0.3%. MAP: 4

8:30: Jobless claims (Week of January 21): Jobless claims declined sharply last week, reversing a worrying increase in mid-December. The 4 week moving average has continued to decline gradually since late November. The consensus expects a small backup in claims this week following the large drop last week.

Consensus:  370,000; Last: 352,000. MAP: 2

10:00: New home sales (December): Small gain. With many investors focused on a possible pickup in housing activity, today’s new home sales report may see extra attention. At present, new home sales remain well-below their post-recession high of 420k. Goldman forecasts a moderate increase of 2.5% (month-over-month) for December.

GS: +2.5%; Consensus: +1.9%; Last +1.6%. MAP: 2

10:00: Index of leading indicators (December): The conference board will revise the methodology underlying its index of leading indicators in today’s report. The changes include: (1) replacing M2 with a measure of credit growth, (2) replacing the ISM supplier delivery time index with the ISM new orders index, and (3) changing the way consumer expectations are measured in the report. Partly because of these periodic revisions we put low value on this indicator.

Consensus: +0.7%; Last +0.5%.


Source: GS


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