The Ultimate History-Of-Markets Chartbook

Whether gold-bug, permabull, or deflationst; BofAML provides a little something for everyone in the most complete picture guide to 'financial markets since 1800'. A collection of almost 100 charts on asset price returns, correlations, volatility, valuations and many other market and macro factors for the US, UK, Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets.

“History does not repeat itself but it does rhyme.”
-Mark Twain

The Long-run in numbers:

  • 1.45%: the yield of US 10 year Treasuries on June 1, 2012; a 220-year low
  • 1958: the last time US AAA corporate bond yields were as low as they are today
  • 1517: Dutch government bond yields currently at lowest level in almost 500 years
  • 320bps: the current spread between European dividend yields and German bund yields, an all-time high
  • 63x: the amount EM equities are up since the late 1960s
  • $1900/oz: record high gold price reached in September 2011
  • 43%: the drop in US real home prices since the 2006 peak, making the current US real estate bear market the greatest since 1921
  • 8%: Japan’s share of global equity market cap; close to an all-time low and down from 44% in 1988
  • $3,642,000: What $1 invested in US large company stocks in 1824 would be worth today with dividends reinvested
  • 1 out of 2: the number of years since 1871 that the S&P 500 has had a negative real price return
  • 44%: the share of US Treasuries owned by foreigners; up from just 1% in 1945
  • 280mn: the number of people India’s working age population will grow by over the next 25 years; this is more than the current working age population in the US and Germany combined

The Long-run in years:

  • 1602: the Dutch East India Company becomes the first company to issue stocks and bonds
    on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange
  • 1685: Germany establishes the second stock exchange in the world
  • 1790: an $80 million U.S. Government bond offering to refinance Revolutionary War debt
    becomes the first publicly traded security in the US
  • 1792: the NYSE is organized and the Bank of New York becomes the first company listed
  • 1810: Russia is the first “emerging market” country to establish a stock market
  • 1879: US stocks record their best year ever, returning 57%
  • 1891: the first US equity bear market (>20% loss) is caused by the “Baring Brothers Crisis”
  • 1918: US Inflation hits an all-time high of 20.4%
  • 1931: US stocks record their worst year ever, declining 43%
  • 1932: the most volatile year ever for US stocks as volatility hits 68%
  • 1981: monthly US 10 year Treasury yields hit an all-time high of 15.8%
  • 1982: the best year of total return for long-term Treasuries of 40%
  • 1987: on “Black Monday,” October 19th, the Dow falls 23%, the largest daily drop ever
  • 2009: the worst year for long-term Treasury returns with losses of 15%
  • 2012: a year marked by multi-century lows in many DM government bond yields (including
    the Netherlands, France, US)

For your Independence Day enjoyment:

BofAML The Longest Picture

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