Please consider a very biased poll on student debt cancellation and disingenuous reporting by Business Insider...
Data on Progress Poll, annotations by Mish
Business Insider writer Ayelet Sheffey says Student loan forgiveness could lure nearly half of Americans in key battleground states to vote in November.
- Data for Progress and Rise surveyed Americans in key battleground states on student-debt relief.
- It found 45% of respondents would be more likely to vote if Biden cancels $10,000 in student debt.
If you are looking for fluff reporting, look no further.
Hoot of the Day
Amusingly, Sheffey quoted delusional thinkers commenting about delusional thinking.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in December it would be "actually delusional" to think Democrats could win elections if they fail to follow through on voter priorities. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren said in January that canceling student debt "would persuade a lot of young people that this president is in the fight for them."
AOC and Warren are delusional.
Democrats will get trounced in November because the radical Left hijacked the party, not because Democrats failed to pass the legislation.
Curiously, Sheffey did not even link to the poll!
The Touted Poll
🚨 🚨 🚨 New poll from us & @DataProgress finds that @POTUS cancelling student loan debt would increase voter turnout. The survey found Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voters are more likely to vote for @TheDemocrats if cancellation happens https://t.co/E5AFTSOy5s pic.twitter.com/Ei6ApXhZWj— Rise (@RiseFreeOrg) March 31, 2022
Headline vs Reality
BI Headline: Student loan forgiveness could lure nearly half of Americans in key battleground states to vote in November.
BI Bullet Point: It found 45% of respondents would be more likely to vote if Biden cancels $10,000 in student debt.
Reality: The baseline poll shows an edge for republicans over Democrats 48-44. That changed to 46-45 in favor of Republicans after a series of leading questions.
The change, assuming it's believable, is from R+4 to R+1 in the battleground states.
Is the Change Even Believable?
Perhaps, but I rather doubt it.
People who believe in free money for student loans are going to vote Democratic anyway.
Ask enough leading questions and a percentage of people will change their reply along the lines of "Heck yes, I would rather have even more free money."
What Would More Free Money Do?
In three words: Dramatically increase inflation.
- More free money would increase demands for all kinds of goods and services.
- Increased demand for goods and services would further strain supply constraints and increase labor demands and constraints.
Four Measures of Inflation
Inflation data from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
CPI stands for Consumer Price Index
PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures.
PCE differs from the CPI (Consumer Price Index) in that it includes expenses paid on behalf of consumers such as Medicare and company medical plans whereas the CPI only included expenses directly paid by consumers.
Core means excluding food and energy
Neither the CPI nor PCE directly includes home prices, instead they incorporate rent
The yellow highlights on dates indicates timing of free money stimulus checks
Inflation had already taken off before the final and biggest round of free money.
That third round of fiscal was grossly unwarranted and fueled huge inflation in a big shotgun blast of free money.
Real Income and Spending Billions of Dollars
Real Income and Spending data from the BEA, chart by Mish
I bet you can easily spot three rounds of free money. Inflation started to accelerate before the third and biggest round.
Fluff Questions and Reporting
It's easy to ask biased fluff questions and get the answers you want in polls.
Next time, I would like to see Data for Progress and Rise Free ask "Would you be willing to cancel student debt if it meant higher prices for rent, higher prices for goods, and higher prices for everything in general?"
Of course those saddled in student debt would still say yes. Everyone else would say no, or lie.
"Rise Free Org" is an amusing name. If you want a further rise in inflation, vote for more free money.
Real Personal Income Declines for the 9th Time in 10 Months
For discussion of the above chart, please see Real Personal Income Declines for the 9th Time in 10 Months
For discussion of inflation measures including an additional focus on food, please see Let's Look at Four Measures of Inflation Plus a Spotlight on Food
The economic illiteracy of Progressives is astounding.
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