Consumer Prices Have Risen Every Month Since 'Bidenomics' Began, Up 19.5% To Record High
After a fourth straight month of hotter than expected PPI, analysts' expectations for CPI were tightly ranged around 0.3-0.4% MoM and printed +0.3% MoM (slightly below the 0.4% expected). The YoY headline CPI fell to +3.4% as expected from +3.5% prior
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Services slowed modestly MoM...
On a 3m and 6m annualized basis, Energy costs are reaccelerating most...
Source: Bloomberg
Used car and truck prices along with Gas Utility prices plunged on a MoM basis...
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) with YoY slowing to +3.6%, also as expected...
Source: Bloomberg
Core goods deflation continues while Core Services continue to rise...
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI YoY was 3.6% in April, the lowest it's been in 3 years. The 1-month annualized fell to the same 3.6% as the YoY, which is why the YoY has been more reliable as a trend measure recently.
Housing (rent and OER) contributed 17.5 bps to monthly core CPI inflation in April. While still hot (2018-19 average was 11 bps), it's the lowest monthly contribution since Dec 2021. And as we show in the chart, YoY housing in CPI is cooling.
Virtually all of the excess core CPI inflation YoY--the part of inflation above and beyond Fed target - resulted from housing & auto insurance. Core non-housing services have heated up on a higher frequency basis but haven't weighing much (yet) on the annual print.
Also, while not in core, but extremely important for anyone who eats food: grocery prices actually fell -0.2% MoM in April and are running 1.1% YoY according to the Biden BLS. We doubt anyone will believe this number, which was goalseeked so that wage growth would strongly outpace grocery inflation. Relative to wages, grocery prices are back down below their 2019 levels. This, too, won't be believed by anyone.
And one step deeper - the so-called SuperCore: Core CPI Services Ex-Shelter index - rose 0.5% MoM up to 5.05% YoY - the hottest since April 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of SuperCore CPI, Education costs rose (to pay for cleaning up all those protests?) and Transportation Services dominated on a YoY basis...
Source: Bloomberg
And while Shelter costs rose on a MoM basis, they continues to slow on a YoY basis...
Source: Bloomberg
Goods prices are deflating at the fastest pace since April 2004, while Services prices are stuck around +5.3% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden's term began (July 2022 was the closest with 'unchanged'), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump's term). And prices have never been more expensive...
Source: Bloomberg
That is an average of 5.5% per annum (more than triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump's term).
Finally, and most notably it was a miss... but not for the reason expected...
It was a miss but not for the reason expected: OER catch down STILL to kick in; next few CPI print will be a dovish meltdown https://t.co/w1px0HrJN0
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 15, 2024
Which means the next few months CPI will be even bigger misses...
