Core Retail Sales Disappoints In August, July Revised Down

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Sep 15, 2022 - 12:38 PM

While consensus expected a 0.1% drop in headline retail sales in August, BofA was more optimistic (due to inflation - remember retail sales data is 'notional' not 'real')...

BofA was correct on the headline retail sales print - which rose 0.3% MoM - but we note that July was revised down to a 0.4% drop (from unchanged initial print)

Source: Bloomberg

But core (Ex-Autos) tumbled 0.3% MoM (against expectations of unch) and Ex-Autos and Gas also disappointed (+0.3% MoM vs +0.5% MoM exp)...

On a year-over-year basis, both headline and core retail sales growth slowed...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, all these numbers need to be adjusted for inflation - which surprised to the upside in August - and that suggests demand pressures on a volume basis.

Gas stations saw sales tumble 4.2% MoM (as prices dropped) but motor vehicles & parts dealers saw sales rise 2.8% MoM...

Online sales dropped for the first time since March...

Finally, the Control Group - which feeds through to GDP - was very disappointing. Against expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise, it was unchanged in September.