I crunch the numbers several ways and conclude between 150,000 and 450,000 people will lose their job over Mayor Bill de Blasio's vaccination requirement for all NYC workers.
Over the Top Tweet
Here's a Tweet that caught my eye as a wild exaggeration.
To be clear, Mayor de Blasio is saying that 45% of blacks, 40% of whites, and 30% of Hispanics will be ineligible and legally barred from working in New York City in 20 days.— Joe Borelli (@JoeBorelliNYC) December 6, 2021
According to Joe Borelli, NYC Council Minority Leader, 45% of blacks, 40% of whites, and 30% of Hispanics will be ineligible and legally barred from working in New York City in 20 days.
Borelli is talking about Mayor Bill de Blasio ‘first in the nation’ vaccination mandate for all workers in New York City starting December 27.
Let's compute realistic numbers based on vaccination data and the latest census demographic data.
Percent of Residents Vaccinated
NYC Vaccination Data shows that at most, 18.3% of New Yorker residents are theoretically impacted, but not all of them work.
New York City Demographics
As of the 2020 Census, the population of New York City was 8,804,190.
But how many of them are working age? The above link did not have an age breakdown for 2020 so let's use the 2000 census data as a very good approximation.
New York City Population By Age
Those under 18 and those over 65 are 36% of the population. Those 18-65 are 64% of the eligible population.
64% of 8,804,190 is 5,634,816. That's on the high side in practice.
New York City Employees
The BLS has an actual count of All Employees: Total Nonfarm in New York City
As of October 2021, the number of NYC employees is 4,226,300.
That is less than half of the population of the city. Factoring in the vaccination rate, about 9% of the entire city is at risk of losing their.
Thus Borelli is wildly off on his percentages.
I am not at all defending mayor de Blasio. Indeed, I heavily blasted him in New York City Mandates Vaccinations, Please Be Ready With Your Vaccine Card.
I am just in search of more accurate numbers.
Estimated Percent and Numbers
At most, about 9% of the city and 18% of the workers are impacted. The count is less because only 10.8% are not vaccinated at all. That's still a lot of people though.
Let's crunch some numbers at various compliance rates using 4,226,300 as the current number of employees and 18% as the maximum percentage of unvaccinated.
No Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 4,226,300 = 760,734
Assuming 25% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.75 * 4,226,300 = 570,551
Assuming 50% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.50 * 4,226,300 = 380,367
Assuming 75% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.25 * 4,226,300 = 190,184
Assuming 90% Additional Compliance: 0.18 * 0.10 * 4,226,300 = 76,073
Some number of people will refuse vaccinations. I suspect between 150,000 and 450,000 people will lose their job over the mandate. To pick a number, call it 250,000.
Percentagewise, 250,000 / 4,226,300 * 100 is 5.9%. And the number could be much higher if I overestimate compliance.
Is This Even Legal?
As an aside, it's likely the governor could make such a ruling for the state. It is highly questionable a mayor can do the same.
Even if a mayor could, it is beyond idiotic for a mayor with just a few days left in his term to do so.
New York City Job Recovery
Finally, look at the job recovery rate in the city. Jobs in NYC are 10% lower now than the pre-pandemic high. Nationally, jobs are about 2.6% lower.
Blame New York tax rates (people leaving) and inane NYC policies for the huge divergence. This mandate sure will not help.
Eric Adams takes over as Mayor on January 1. He would be wise to kill de Blasio's nonsense as his first official act.
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