Jobless Claims Hover Near 17-Month Highs, Flash Recession Signal

In the new post-revision world of jobless claims, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first dropped modestly last week from 246k to 230k (but remains well above the 200k Maginot Line). Continuing claims was practically flat from the prior week at 1.88 million.

Source: Bloomberg

Both measures of the labor market remain near 17-month highs.

Finally, as a reminder, the ongoing deterioration in continuing claims data across US states is consistent with a recession beginning very soon.

The picture is unassailable. The percentage of states with continuing claims rising more 30% on an annual basis has never reached its current level and not gone on to rapidly spike much higher, and this has always happened concurrent with a recession.

One more point of interest, this week's claims data coincides with the non-farm payrolls survey window.