US (Nominal) Retail Sales Soar In October

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 16, 2021 - 01:37 PM

Having broken their flawless streak for predicting retail sales this year in September, BofA forecast a bigger-than-consensus jump in spending in October and they were back to their winning ways as the print was a huge +1.7% MoM, against +1.6% BofA and +1.4% MoM consensus with retail sales reacclerating 16.3% YoY.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 3rd consecutive increase in sales (and 3rd consecutive beat).

Ex-Autos, sales soared 1.7% MoM (far hotter than the +1.0% MoM expected) and Ex-Autos, Building Materials, and Gas Stations sales rose 1.4% MoM and are up 12.9% YoY...

And the Control Group - which feeds through to GDP - surged 1.6% MoM - more than triple the 0.5% MoM rise in September and far above expectations.

Only clothing and accessories saw sales drop...

Despite the plunge in buying attitudes, spending is soaring.

However, it is crucial to remember that retail spending is 'nominal' dollars not 'real' and thus spending could be driven as much by accelerating-inflation as by confidence.

Additionally, anxiety over the supply chain issues ahead of Christmas may be pulling-forward sales.