WTF Is Going On With The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Data?
After rebounding strongly from November to January, US Consumer Confidence tumbled in February, according to the latest survey from The Conference Board, beating expectations across the board.
Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 (estimate 115.0) in February from revised 110.9 in January
Present situation fell to 147.2 from revised 154.9 in January
Expectations index fell to 79.8 from revised 81.5 in January
Source: Bloomberg
While that decline on the chart does not look like much, it is dramatic relative to expectations and pre-revision levels. A six-sigma miss...
Source: Bloomberg
But, for the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January's was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022...
Source: Bloomberg
So January's spike above July's revised highs which everyone shot their load of exuberance over... is gonzo!!
Source: Bloomberg
For context, that is 11.1 pts of 'confidence' erased by 'adjustments/revisions' in four months - by far the largest downward shift in the survey's history...
Source: Bloomberg
Which brings up the same question we had last month?
How do you revise consumer confidence down? Do you ask them again and they tell you, "You know what, I wasn't feeling it as much as I thought I was"
— Zebra Cat (@ZebraCat20) November 28, 2023
The Conference Board's indicator inflation expectations tumbled further to +5.2% - still notably high but trend in the right direction...
Source: Bloomberg
The labor market indicators trended notably stronger again in February?
Source: Bloomberg
Bidenomics: where everything is revised lower a month after nobody remembers.
