Like most polls leading up to November's election, a new Monmouth survey finds Biden leading Trump, this time by a margin of 53-40.
This poll, however, revealed that 57% believe the so-called 'silent majority' of secret Trump supporters will hand Trump the win - an echo of 2016 when 'rural America and the silent majority' came out in numbers to support the New York real estate tycoon.
Despite the challenger’s poll lead, voters are evenly divided on who they think will win the Keystone State’s electoral votes this year as a majority believe that their communities hold a number of “secret Trump voters.” Other poll findings include a close margin on the generic congressional ballot and better reviews for the commonwealth’s governor than for the president on handling the pandemic.
Most registered voters (54%) say they were surprised in 2016 when Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. They are evenly divided on whether they expect Trump (46%) or Biden (45%) to win the commonwealth this time around. One reason for this seems to be that most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%). -Monmouth
"The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016," saiud monmouth pollster Patrick Murray (via Bloomberg). "The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020."
Underestimating that “Shy Trump” voter was one reason pollsters underestimated Trump’s support in four years ago. A study by the American Association of Public Opinion Research suggested that asking about neighbors “warrants experimentation.” “The general idea is that if people will not admit they personally would vote for Trump, they would admit that their neighbors would,” the AAPOR report said. Trump has been counting on that secret vote as national polls show him behind by 9 points and losing in the three battleground states that propelled him to victory four years ago: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. “I think a lot of people don’t want to talk about it,” Trump said Tuesday. “I think they’re not going to say, ‘Hey, I’m for Trump. I’m for Trump.’ They don’t want to go through the process. And I fully understand that, because the process is not fair,” Trump said. -Bloomberg
The poll found that Biden has an advantage with voters under the age of 50 and older than 65, while Trump has the edge among those between 50 and 65.
"We're leading all the polls, but also our voters don't believe polls" is probably the zone D's want their base in through November— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) July 15, 2020
At the end of last month, Gen. Michael Flynn (Ret.) penned an op-ed calling on the silent majority to "Wake up!" - warning that "our silent majority (the indifferen) can no longer be silent."
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It is through our rights and privileges as American citizens that we challenge the political class and leverage our election process so “we the people” can decide who will govern.
We must not allow a small percentage of the powerful to overtake our position on America’s battlefield. We, as free-thinking and acting individuals, must control how we will live and not allow a few passionate others to change our way of life.
To the silent and currently indifferent majority: Wake up. America is at risk of being lost in the dustbin of history to socialism. The very heart and soul of America is at stake.
In war, as in life, most failure comes from inaction. We face a pivotal moment that can change the course of history of our nation.
We the people must challenge every politician at every level.
We also must stand and support our law enforcement professionals: They are the pointy end of the spear defending us against anarchy.
Now is the time to act.