PremiumDemocrat Sweep? Here Are JPMorgan's Midterm Trades - And Why Gridlock Pays
Everyone expects Democrats to take back the House in the November midterms - betting markets give them an 85% chance, so there isn't much of an edge trading-wise. Whatever money there is to make sits in the Senate, and JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler is on it.
Tyler offers his base case in a Wednesday morning note: Across the 23 midterm cycles since 1934, the sitting president's party has lost roughly 27 House seats and about 3 Senate seats on average. Applied to a 218-seat Republican House majority and a 53-47 Senate, history says Democrats take the House and Republicans hold the Senate. And while betting markets give Dems an 85% chance of taking back the House, the chance Republicans keep the Senate is a very tight 53% according to Kalshi.