The Republican Party has been picking up support over the past year, as more than 1 million voters across 43 states switched to the GOP, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press.
More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump. -AP
Democrats, meanwhile, picked up just 630,000 new voters in the analysis of 1.7 million voters who had switched affiliations over the last 12 months. The data, which was provided by political data firm L2, used a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling.
"While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide," reads the report.
The data points to a red wave brewing ahead of this fall's midterms, according to Axios.
The most damaging aspect of this shift to Democrats? The suburbs.
According to the report, 'well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump's Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back."
Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa. -AP
More notables about the report via Axios:
- The party switches were evident across the board — in red states and blue states, cities and small towns and suburban areas, AP found.
- Of the nearly 1.7 million voters who changed parties in states with available data over the last year, some two-thirds went to the GOP.
- "Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that's why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," RNC chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP.
Between the lines: One outlier was in Virginia, where Democrats saw an uptick in registered voters.
"It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right," according to 37-year-old Ben Smith of Larimer County, Colorado, who says he reluctantly left the Democratic party over the last year after becoming concerned about his former party's push for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the party's inability to tame crime while focusing on racial justice.
AP called it a "dire warning for Democrats" who are already dealing with the macro effects of the economy reflecting in the polls this fall during midterms.
What's to blame?
According to the report, suburban parents grew 'increasingly frustrated' over the prolonged pandemic-related school closures, while the RNC began hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban locations within swing states, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
"Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves," said RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel. "American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come" thanks to "Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime."
Over the last year, nearly every state — even those without high-profile Republican primaries — moved in the same direction as voters by the thousand became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held off-year elections in 2021, saw Democrats notably trending up over the last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in last fall’s statewide elections.
In Iowa, Democrats used to hold the advantage in party changers by a 2-to-1 margin. That’s flipped over the last year, with Republicans ahead by a similar amount. The same dramatic shift is playing out in Ohio.
In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers during those last years of the Trump era. Now, over the last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, the Republicans went from 58 to 63 percent of party changers. -AP
To understand more about why disaffected Democrats have left their party (aside from the overwhelming obvious), click here.