Republicans are becoming increasingly optimistic over a so-called 'red wave' in 2022 that could flip both chambers of Congress.
The shift in sentiment comes as the Biden administration squarely owns soaring inflation that's hammering the average American household, counterintuitive Covid-19 restrictions in the face of Omicron - a decidedly mild strain (after Biden vowed to 'shut down' Covid), a botched withdrawal from Afghanistan which included the murder of seven children in a US drone strike, and a crime wave that's crept into the neighborhoods of middle-class suburban voters.
And the administration is transparently bluffing its way through the whole thing.
Sounds great until you adjust for the 7% inflation— Jack Posobiec ✝️ (@JackPosobiec) December 27, 2021
We can do math, Joe https://t.co/LmocYeFziC
Meanwhile, thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), the Democrats' $2 trillion social spending plan (slush fund) fund is dead, along with the enhanced Child Tax Credit that expired this month.
Oh, and let's not forget President Biden's approval ratings - which have nosedived into the low 40s.
And so, amid these dismal failures, there is growing enthusiasm among Republicans that they'll take the congressional cake during next year's midterm elections, according to The Hill.
"I've been telling Democrats, especially Democrats in targeted seats, enjoy the holidays, and you got a decision to make: retire or lose next fall," said Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee. That said, a GOP House majority isn't a guarantee, he cautioned, however he suggested that as many as 70 Democrats could lose their seats in a potential red wave, adding "in this environment, no Democrat is safe."
At present, 25 members of the House Democratic Caucus have announced they won't seek reelection.
"They're running for the hills," said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard. "I think they see the writing on the wall."
Fueling the GOP optimism is a confluence of factors, both historic and current.
The party in the White House customarily loses seats in the midterms. GOP waves helped flip the House toward Republicans in 2010 and the Senate four years later, while a blue wave helped win Democrats back the lower chamber in 2018.
On top of that, Biden’s falling overall approval ratings have been coupled with lower approval by voters of his handling of several specific issues, including the coronavirus and the economy. That’s helped fuel a GOP advantage in the generic congressional poll, where, in part due to gerrymandering, Democrats typically need a slight edge to at least pull even. -The Hill
At minimum, Republicans reasonably expect that they can take back at least the House.
"I'm very confident that we're gonna take back the House," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE). "I think that on the key issues right now, all the energy is on our side. And when I look at all the polling data, it matches what I see in the district, voters are concerned about inflation, crime, the border, Afghanistan, and all those issues are in our favor."
Democratic pollster Molly Murphy is concerned. "The environment is particularly dour, both because of rising prices, economic anxiety, frustration about feeling stagnant when it comes to COVID, that it is not behind us despite the fact that we've been living with it for two years," she said, adding "If this environment holds, it's going to be pretty damning."
Read the rest of the report here.