SCOTUS Leak Sparks Rise In Democrats' Odds Of Controlling Senate/House After Midterms

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by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 - 01:45 AM

About six months until the midterm elections, a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion signals the potential for Roe v. Wade to be overturned after five decades. The news sparked speculation that if the highest court in the land rules to overturn abortion as a "sacred" right to women, it could spark political gyrations ahead of the elections in November, and politicians on the Left were quick to pounce.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research tweeted the question: "Will the Roe decision impact the midterms?" 

Bianco points to political future odds on PredictIt have seen a "massive spike in volume" following the leak.

The first contract is "Which Party will Win the House in the 2022 Elections?" 

Outlined in the chart is a surge in volume and a jump in odds for Democrats from 11% on 5/1 to 17% on 5/2. Republicans saw a decline of 90% on 5/1 to 84% on 5/2. 

The next contract is "Which Party will Control the Senate After 2022 Election?"

Again, another massive volume spike in political futures with Democrats increasing from 22% to 28% and Republicans declining from 78% to 74%.

On Tuesday, President Biden reacted immediately to the leaked draft and said:

"I believe that a woman's right to choose is fundamental, Roe has been the law of the land for almost fifty years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned.

"And it will fall on voters to elect pro-choice officials this November." 

The Democrats now have a compelling message, something they lacked this year as the highest inflation in four decades crushes working poor Americans who struggle with record-high gas and food prices moved to the right side of the political aisle. Now, there's a chance that some middle of the fence voters could be swayed to vote Democrat based on a potential ruling by the Supreme Court. 

Still, Republicans have a significant lead over Democrats as a recent Gallup poll suggests Americans are far less concerned about abortion than other issues, according to Newsweek, which also said, "Roe v. Wade may not have a major effect on Republicans' chances in the midterm elections."

Mark Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital commented on Bianco's tweet and said:

"I doubt that during our economic misery (due to inflation), this "theoretical" decision will sway many votes in December.

"The strong anti-choice crowd ALWAYS votes Republican and the adamant pro-choicers always vote Democrat. Those in the middle will prioritize their pocketbooks." 

The timing of the leak (given the collapsing approval ratings) and the immediate politicization by the Biden administration are mere coincidence of course.