Super Tuesday: Biden Wins Big, Bernie Bags CA, Bloomberg Biggest Loser After Warren

Biden's campaign was broke and all but dead until he won South Carolina on Saturday. The revival that unfolded across 14 states last night was built not only on strong support from African Americans but also a consolidation of white, establishment Democrats around the former vice president.

"They don't call it Super Tuesday for nothing," Biden declared at a rally in Los Angeles.

The night ended with Biden dominant, including surprise wins in Minnesota and Texas

  • Biden wins Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Maine, & Texas

  • Bernie wins Vermont, Colorado, Utah, & California

  • Bloomberg wins American Samoa?

The projected delegate count is:

Source: NYTimes

But, as Axios notes, this won't be over for a long time. Sanders' enduring appeal to younger voters, Latinos and progressives foreshadows a long fight, especially in the West, but Biden's wins in states where he hadn't even competed were the story of the night.

A veteran strategist said of the late but swift rally around Biden: "Bernie terror finally took hold in a big way."

Despite having nothing to show for his $500 million except American Samoa, Mike Bloomberg wants everyone to know he has no intention of getting elbowed out of the presidential race, even as fellow moderates are dropping out and endorsing Joe Biden.

The Trump campaign puts out a statement:

The results only increase the likelihood that no candidate will have enough delegates for a first ballot victory at their convention, which only means more chaos! The media is hyperventilating about Joe Biden but everyone should remember that he is just as terrible a candidate right now as he was a few days ago.”

Even if Bernie is not on November’s ballot, his big government socialist ideas will be because they have become mainstream in today’s Democrat Party. President Trump will wipe the floor with whatever Democrat is unlucky enough to be the nominee.”

Details:

VIRGINIA (99 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

The former VP got 66% of the black vote. Bloomberg was a distant third which is a major blow given the time and effort he focused in that state.

VERMONT (16 delegates)

Winner: Bernie Sanders

100% expected to clinch his home state. Mike Bloomberg in 4th behind Warren

NORTH CAROLINA (110 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

NBC’s Kornacki showing exit polls showing “a landslide” for Joe Biden in North Carolina. He’s crushing among African Americans and winning by double digits among white voters too.

AMERICAN SAMOA (6 delegates)

Winner: Mike Bloomberg

“A decisive victory, we are led to believe, over Tulsi Gabbard...” says MSNBC’s Brian Williams on Bloomberg’s win in American Samoa.

ALABAMA (52 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

Exit polls again showing huge support among African Americans powering Biden to a big win in Alabama, per MSNBC.

OKLAHOMA (37 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

Fox is calling it for Joe - With 413 of 1,948 precincts reporting, Biden 32%, Sanders 23%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 14%, Gabbard 2%.

COLORADO (67 delegates)

Winner: Bernie Sanders

NBC project Bloomberg finishing second in Colorado.

TENNESSEE (64 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

MINNESOTA (75 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

Biden winning Minnesota is first genuine whoa of the night, apparently after he was endorsed by Amy Klobuchar. Bernie Sanders carried the state in 2016.

ARKANSAS (31 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

UTAH (29 delegates)

Winner: Bernie Sanders

Fox projects Sanders as the winner, Biden is 4th.

MASSACHUSETTS (91 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

“They don’t call it Super Tuesday for nothing,” Biden says. Warren finishes 3rd in her home state.

CALIFORNIA (415 delegates)

Winner: Bernie Sanders

Worth noting the significance of AP feeling confident enough to call Sanders winning California, the state with the largest number of delegates, immediately after polls closed. Sanders is polling 12 points ahead of Biden in California, according to Real Clear Politics average of polls.

TEXAS (228 delegates)

Winner: Joe Biden

By the way, Donald Trump has a big lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. With 1,276 bound delegates needed to win, Trump has 548 delegates right now, versus former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, with 1.

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Biden is screaming ahead of Bernie in the prediction markets...

The market is bid on the back of Biden's gains for now...

When asked if Mike Bloomberg will drop out tonight, Bloomberg Campaign Manager Kevin Sheekey says, “absolutely not.” President Trump has other ideas..

Hillary Clinton tells NPR she doesn’t plan to endorse anyone.

“I am going to say the same thing I’ve been saying from the beginning of this vigorous primary contest: I hope the voters will pick the person that is most able to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. At the end of the day, that is all that matters.”

It appears The DNC have pulled out all the dirty tricks to defeat Bernie...

But, Sanders strikes a defiant tone.

“Tonight I can tell you with absolute confidence we are going to win the Democratic nomination.”

Trump tweets Warren was the loser of the night, other than Bloomberg, he says...

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Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

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Lots more to come.

  • MAINE (24 delegates): Polls close at 8 p.m.

  • DEMOCRATS ABROAD (13 delegates): Voting continues through March 10.

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The Democratic presidential contenders are poised to face off on Tuesday in one of the most consequential contests of the primary race so far, with 14 states set to vote and 1,300 delegates up for grabs.

As The Hill reports, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) heads into the contests as the front-runner after wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, as well as a virtual tie in Iowa, but former Vice President Joe Biden got a major boost after decisively winning South Carolina.

However, it appears the money is piling into Biden as prediction markets now have him at 54% chance of getting the nomination (vs Bernie, who has plunged to 40%)...

Super Tuesday will also mark the debut of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the ballot. He will join a race that has significantly winnowed over the past three days with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and billionaire Tom Steyer all dropping out.

The Primary Voters are considerably more diverse than recent primaries. Roughly four in 10 voters in today’s Democratic presidential primaries are people of color, according to the NBC News Exit Poll conducted in 12 of the 14 Super Tuesday states but today's voters are on the older side - 64% of today’s Democratic voters are 45 or over, including the 29% of voters who are age 65 or over.

Here are the most crucial states to watch out for on Tuesday, according to The Hill: 

California 

California is the biggest prize of the evening, with 415 delegates up for grabs. 

Sanders is currently the clear favorite to win the Golden State, but Biden has an opportunity to put a dent in his support. The RealClearPolitics average from the Democratic primary’s California polls shows Sanders with a nearly 17 point lead over his rivals, but Biden’s support has ticked up in a few recent polls.  A CBS News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Sanders with 31 percent support in the state and Biden at 19 percent support, with Warren at 18 percent. Biden also stands to benefit in the state if he receives the support of former Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters. That would give him a better chance of reaching the 15 percent viability threshold in the state, providing him with a share of the delegates even if he does not win the state as a whole.  “We’re no longer dividing the pot between four, five or six people. We’re dividing it between three people,” said Kelly Dietrich, the founder and head of the National Democratic Training Committee, which trains Democrats to run for public office. However, it still remains to be seen what influence Bloomberg will have in the state where he’s spent $36 million on advertising alone.  “I think he’s going to have trouble competing in California,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “The fact that Joe Biden is a stronger candidate than he was three days ago hurts Bloomberg, who is also in the moderate lane.”  “Part of Bloomberg’s vote strategy was associated with [Biden’s] weakness, and Biden is now a stronger candidate,” he said. 

Texas 

The Lone Star State has the second-most delegates up for grabs, at 228. Sanders is leading in the state, but by a much narrower gap than in California. 

The RealClearPolitics polling average in Texas’s Democratic primary puts Sanders six points ahead of Biden.  Sanders is relying on his strong support among the Latino community in the state after he was propelled to victory in Nevada thanks in large part to Hispanic voters. A poll conducted by the firm Latino Decisions for Univision and the University of Houston's Center for Mexican American Studies, shows Sanders polling at 31 percent support among Texas Hispanics, while Bloomberg and Biden trailed at 23 and 19 percent, respectively. The poll was released before South Carolina's primary. Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and White House adviser in the Clinton and Obama administrations, said Biden will need to improve his standing among the Hispanic community in order to perform well in states like Texas.  “As much credit as you have to give Bernie Sanders, I also have to say the vice president’s campaign needs to get their act together when it comes to the Latino electorate,” Vella, who sits on the board of Transparent Business, told The Hill. 

Massachusetts 

The Bay State could prove to be a death knell for Warren’s campaign if she does not perform well.

Despite her high name recognition and endorsements from some of the state’s progressive lawmakers, including Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), recent polling shows Warren slipping in her home state. Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll released on Saturday shows Warren’s fellow New Englander Sanders leading with 24 percent support in the state, while she trailed at 22 percent, within the survey’s 4.4-percentage point margin of error. A WBUR survey released earlier last week showed an even wider gap, with Sanders at 25 percent support and Warren at 17 percent support. That poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.  Warren’s performance in New Hampshire could offer some insight into how well she will perform in Massachusetts. The Granite State is famous for choosing New England candidates, voting for Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Warren, by contrast, came in fourth in New Hampshire, behind Midwesterners Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.  “I think she definitely has to win Massachusetts tomorrow, in part to go out to the next wave of states,” Bannon said. [How] can you make a plea for votes there when you can’t win your own state?"

Virginia 

Virginia has the fourth largest share of delegates of the Super Tuesday contests and Bloomberg has paid close attention to the state.

Bloomberg has visited Virginia seven times, more than any other Super Tuesday state. The campaign has eight offices across the commonwealth, including in the Republican-leaning strongholds of Danville and Roanoke. More than 80 Bloomberg staffers are dispersed throughout Virginia. His campaign cites the need to keep the state blue after the legislature flipped to Democrats in 2019 and points to his heavy investment in advocating for stronger gun control measures in Virginia. The issue has played a central role in the state’s political discourse since the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting. “Virginia is a microcosm of one part of the future of the party, you know the moderate, progressive and suburban voters,” senior Bloomberg adviser Tim O’Brien told The Hill. Bloomberg himself touted his own work in the state’s 2019 elections during a get-out-the-vote event in McLean on Saturday. “It [was] so important to help flip the Virginia legislature blue this fall, and I was glad to help get it done,” Bloomberg said to a boisterous crowd. However, a number of recent polls show Bloomberg trailing Sanders and Biden in the state. Biden, in particular, could hurt Bloomberg’s chances in the state after a big win in South Carolina.Biden was also endorsed by a number of notable Democratic figures in Virginia recently. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Elaine Luria, and Rep. Bobby Scott were all on hand for a Biden rally in Norfolk on Sunday evening where the former vice president received a rock star-like reception. 

Alabama 

African American voters make up a large share of the Democratic vote in Alabama, making the state critical for candidates looking to appeal to a voting group that is widely considered the backbone of the Democratic Party. 

Five Thirty-Eight’s forecast shows Biden with a 61 percent chance of winning the state. The former vice president stands to perform well with African American voters after an overwhelming win in South Carolina. Biden received a warm welcome in Selma on Sunday at an event marking the anniversary of the civil rights march. “The moderate African Americans tend to be the majority of the Democratic Party, or at least a large part,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons told The Hill. “Older African Americans who tend to be the leadership of these big parties in the states like Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, they tend to be very pragmatic, if not more moderate. So that means they're more likely to be Joe Biden voters.” While Sanders has relied on younger voters of color for support, he and Biden appeared to split the black youth vote in South Carolina, which might not bode well for the progressive senator in Alabama. “Bernie didn’t have his over performance with young African-Americans that he had in other places,” Simmons said, referring to South Carolina.

Who would Trump prefer? For now, prediction markets appear confident that whoever it is, Trump will win...

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So to wrap up with Super Tuesday, as Rabobank's Michael Every writes, at time of writing, and counting, Joe “Night King” Biden has won handily in Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, Minnesota, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennesse, and Virginia. However, Sanders has won California, Colorado, Utah, and Vermont, and remains ahead in the delegate count at 49% to 39% (Bloomberg has 4%, which perhaps he plans to sell to Biden to make a profit on his USD500m campaign investment so far).

In short, the Democrats are a toss-up between putting forwards a candidate who would likely embrace MMT and one who would run screaming from it…vs. a president who is surely more likely to embrace it. (Just look at his Fed tweets.)