New polling from several 2020 battleground states reveal that more people oppose than support using impeachment to remove President Trump from office, according to The Hill, which describes the results as "a potential danger sign for Democrats."
Voters in Wisconsin and Florida - two key states which Trump won in 2016, oppose impeachment. Of note, Wisconsin turned red for the first time in decades, while Florida flipped red again after Obama won the state twice.
In the swing states of Arizona and New Hampshire, most voters similarly oppose impeachment.
A New York Times–Siena College battlegrounds poll released Wednesday found that majorities in Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida oppose removing the president from office through impeachment. Majorities or pluralities do support an investigation of Trump, however.
Trump’s reelection campaign is emboldened by the polling, which it believes shows that Democrats are running against public opinion in the states that matter the most. -The Hill
"We’ve known for a long time that everybody in California and New York want Trump to be impeached, they’ve wanted that since the day he came into office," one Trump campaign official told The Hill, adding "But in these states where the election is really going to be fought, we’re seeing that voters oppose impeachment, and there’s an intensity to that opposition."
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's impeachment polls tracker reveals that 51% of voters across the country support the House impeachment inquiry vs. 42% who don't support it. 47.6% of voters support impeaching and removing Trump vs. 43.4% who oppose it.
According to the report, "some Republicans believe those surveys are overly weighted by left-leaning independents in states that won’t matter in 2020" - a theory which may hold water given the polling in swing states.
A Marquette University Law School survey of Wisconsin released last week found 46 percent supporting the impeachment inquiry, but 49 percent opposed. Just 44 percent say Trump should be impeached and removed from office, compared to 51 percent opposed.
And in Wisconsin, support for impeachment is far lower among independent voters. Just 35 percent of independents in Wisconsin say the impeachment hearings are warranted, and 33 percent say Trump should be impeached and removed from office.
Trump won Wisconsin by about 23,000 votes in 2016, in part because late-breaking undecided voters went his way. He was the first GOP presidential candidate to win the state since 1984. -The Hill
"On average, the national polls are showing slightly more support for the impeachment hearings and removal than Wisconsin is," said Charles Franklin, who ran the Marquette University poll. "Independents are a little more reluctant to support impeachment at this point, although that could change as the evidence continues to roll out."
New Hampshire polling, meanwhile, also reflects lower support for impeachment vs. national numbers, after a CNN-University of New Hampshire survey found that 42% support impeaching and removing Trump, while 51% are opposed. Notably, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by fewer than 3,000 votes.
And in Arizona, where Trump won by 3.6% over Clinton, an Emerson College poll finds that 50% of respondents oppose impeachment, while 44% support it.
Still, while voters in key swing states may oppose impeachment - the sheer number who do in the first place is concerning according to some Republicans.
"It’s not a good thing that bare majorities oppose removing Trump from office in these key states," one GOP pollster told The Hill. "Removing the president from office should be a really big deal, almost unthinkable, and reserved for the biggest scandals or wrongdoing. So only eking out 51 percent or 52 percent opposition in these states isn’t good."
"That said, these numbers definitely show that there’s lots of room for Democrats to handle this badly and hand Trump a second term," they added.
"These data show that there’s still a lot of skepticism that Democrats have proven their case or are doing this for factual reasons rather than for purely partisan reasons. Right now, Trump’s numbers in these swing states aren’t good. He trails basically any Democrat. But Democrat over-reach on impeachment could give him a message to turn that around."