Update (1600ET): Michigan AG: it looks like Biden has it in the bag.
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel: "It looks to be that Joe Biden has won the state by approximately 150,000 votes. So I don't know how you un-ring that bell." @MSNBC— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 5, 2020
Even in PA, Trump's lead seems to be waning.
New vote count from Pennsylvania drops Trump's lead in the state to less than 100,000 votes. He's now ahead by 97,900. @MSNBC— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 5, 2020
Biden, who started speaking minutes agom emphasized the importace of finishing the count:
BREAKING—BIDEN SPEAKS: Joe Biden is expected to address the nation at 12:30 ET from Delaware, per NBC and CNN reports. https://t.co/cwy2dS8ejO— NowThis (@nowthisnews) November 4, 2020
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Update (1510ET): Two GOP candidates have dropped a lawsuit alleging improprieties in the handling of mail-in ballots in Montgomery County, PA. In what is clearly a tactical retreat, the GOP congressional candidate Kathy Barnette says because a new case has been filed in state court reiterating many of the same claims as her federal case, she feels now would be a good time to drop it. The judge is expected to grant the motion. NBC News reported that the plaintiff seemed "likely to lose".
It appeared during the hearing on the motion that she was likely to lose.
But another judge determined that flawed ballots must be segregated, an apparent victory for Republicans.
Meanwhile, in Nevada, officials announce that they are done counting votes for the day after seemingly only getting through another 10,000 or so.
In Georgia, There’s 47,277 ballots that rema lin outstanding, the state’s Voting Implementation Manager Gabriel Sterling said during a press conference.
Along with Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada are the three key states outstanding. If Biden wins any one of those, he’s won the election, provided he keeps every state he’s currently projected to win (including Arizona, which is a big "if").
After telling people earlier that he hoped to have all votes counted tonight, Sterling dodged questions about the timing at an afternoon press conference.
While he pushed back against claims of fraud, he acknowledged that "we're going to have a recount for president, more ths
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Update (1300ET): Facebook has admitted to killing a popular page purporting to document the theft of the election by Democrats, the page had gained hundreds of thousands of members since yesterday. "Stop the Steal", as it was knwon, wa tartet Rr
In PA, an election official said that most, if not all, of the state's votes by Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, as all the election chaos unfolds, the state has just reported a record jump in COVId-29 cases.
Meanwhile, MIchigan Gov Whitmer sent health dept into Detroit TFC Center to evict GOP pollwatchers, but left Dem pollwatchers or media, claiming COVID concerns despite 40k-sq-ft bldg. Counters cheered when they were evicted. Also put up cardboard over windows to block inspection process
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Update (1245ET): As of 12:45 p.m. today there are approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding in Georgia.
Meanwhile, Twitter's aggressive censorship is angering millions of conservatives and drawning attacks from Trump and his campaign.
Meanwhile, officials in Clark County are holding a live briefing.
LIVE: Clark County, Nevada, election officials give updates on remaining ballot count. https://t.co/WBdDxv6neb— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 5, 2020
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An elections official in Georgia's Fulton County (where Atlanta is the county seat) said he expects to finish counting the absentee ballots later on Thursday. Meanwhile, a judge has rejected the campaign's push to stop counting votes in Chatham County.
Meanwhile, as pollsters once again face the scorn of a public furious about how well President Trump has managed to perform despite everything they threw at him, minutes ago, the NYT's Maggie Haberman tweeted this.
There was a failure across the political universe when it came to polling. There was not a serious person in the country who predicted these results in the House, the Senate or even the president outperforming his 2016 tally by millions of votes.— Bill Burton (@billburton) November 5, 2020
Can somebody check on Nate Silver and just make sure he's okay?
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Update (1215ET): As President Trump and his team filed lawsuits, including one in Nevada, challenging to stop the counting of what it alleges to be "illegal votes", Bloomberg, the AP, NYT and other MSM outlets are reporting that Joe Biden is pulling ahead, winning in Clark and Washoe Counties, the homes of Las Vegas and Reno, the state's two major metropolitan centers respectively.
New election results from the Secretary of State's office showed Biden’s lead over Donald Trump expand to 12,042 votes, stretching his lead to a full percentage point.
The latest numbers included tens of thousands of mail-in and provisional ballots counted in Clark and Washoe after a day of whiplash with both county and state officials initially promising new numbers only to later advise that they wouldn't be ready until Thursday. The state's sluggishness has spawned a batch of memes circulating on social media dunking on the state's "sloth-like" pace.
Trump, meanwhile, is keeping up the drumbeat of "problematic" tweets.
STOP THE FRAUD!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2020
As of now, the state has only 76% of ballots counted. There's still plenty of votes left (and if Trump has his druthers, there could be even fewer).
Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, the ballot count has been halted as Democrats on the Philadelphia County Board of Elections complain to the state Supreme Court. They're putting a surprising, some might say suspicious, amount of effort into blocking the Trump observers.
After some initial confusion, it seems ballot counting has resumed. The Court according to the NYT hasn't ruled yet or even accepted the appeal, but Dems are doing everything they can to try and stop the Trump monitors from witnessing the count.
To address all the confusion, here's the request for an appeal to the PA Supreme Court.— Nick Corasaniti (@NYTnickc) November 5, 2020
Court hasn't ruled or even accepted/denied the appeal.
And Philadelphia counting continues: pic.twitter.com/IH9vVIQwN4
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Update (1145ET): As we approach noon on the East Coast, the Biden Campaign is saying the final result in Arizona won't be known until Friday at the earliest. Meanwhile, a judge in Georgia has dismissed a lawsuit by the Trump campaign, according to the AP.
Meanwhile, in another sign of how unreliable the polls can be, Georgia might see a second senatorial run off as Republican incumbent David Perdue’s team has issued a statement that seems to signal they are anticipating one. In Georgia, a runoff is held in January if no candidate receives 50% of the statewide vote.
“If overtime is required when all of the votes have been counted, we’re ready, and we will win,” Perdue’s campaign manager says. “There’s only one candidate in this race who has ever lost a runoff, and it isn’t David Perdue.”
This means, with both of Georgia's senate races being delayed until January, the GOP could see a narrow chance of their Senate majority be reduced if one or both GOP candidates lose.
Meanwhile, in PA's Allegheny County, the counting of votes has been halted due to a lawsuit.
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Update (1125ET): In his latest tweet (what will probably be at least his third today to be officially censored by Twitter), President Trump insisted that he will challenge every state won by Biden, adding that there is "Plenty of proof" (a phrase Twitter will almost certainly take issue with).
All of the recent Biden claimed States will be legally challenged by us for Voter Fraud and State Election Fraud. Plenty of proof - just check out the Media. WE WILL WIN! America First!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2020
The Biden campaign said meanwhile that it sees no changes in NC, and that it believes Biden will be the next president.
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Update (1100ET): A PA appellate court has ruled that GOP monitors can watch the rest of the count, a victory that Trump Deputy Campaign Manager Justin Clark described as a major win: "I can't stress enough how big a victory this is," he said. Trump monitors had been pushed back, sometimes as much as 100 feet away.
In Georgia, officials in Fulton County, which includes Atlanta, a heavily Democratic area, said vote counting is nearly done, while a statewide official said that, God willing, the state's final count should be available by end of day Thursday. "We're gonna finish tonight," Fulton County Elections Director said.
The Biden Campaign, meanwhile, is claiming that the "data" shows Trump can't win at this point, and that Trump "knows he is losing". Not only does the campaign 'believe' Biden will take Arizona (though it might take some time), they also believe they're reaching "parity" with Trump in PA.
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Update (1020ET): With Georgia election officials proclaiming that they expect to have a final count available by noon, President Trump has just tweeted that votes that came in after election day will not be counted, eliciting another slap on the wrist from Twitter.
Trump's tweet remained up for 15 minutes or so before Twitter slapped a label on it.
Meanwhile, President Trump's campaign is holding press briefings in Philly and Las Vegas this morning to lay out the legal strategy to try and stop any late mail-in (ie majority Democratic) votes from being counted.
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As Joe Biden creeps closer to the 270 mark, President Trump and his legal team have filed a flurry of lawsuits, according to the AP.
They're hoping to improve the president’s chances, or at the very least cast doubt on the election results, requesting a recount in Wisconsin and filing lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia. Statewide recounts in Wisconsin have historically changed the vote tally by only a few hundred votes, however, according to the AP. Wisconsin is among the states that have been called for Biden. He currently leads by 20,000 ballots out of nearly 3.3 million counted.
Still, Trump Campaign manager Bill Stepien said the president would cite “irregularities” in several counties while requesting a recount in Wisconsin. Stepien and the campaign's legal team explained that they would file suit in Michigan and Pennsylvania to halt ballot counting on grounds that their observers weren't given proper access to observe.
President Trump tweeted "STOP THE COUNT!" Thursday morning, a tweet that's practically destined to be censord.
STOP THE COUNT!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2020
Still other legal actions are being launched in Georgia.
As we explained yesterday, Trump is pushing to take the battle all the way to the Supreme Court, where he believes the conservative majority would give him an edge.
Anyway, here's a rundown of where we currently stand via Newsquawk:
Where do we currently stand?
There are currently some discrepancies between various news organization depending on whether or not they include Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes.
If you were to include it, as per Politico, this would put Biden on 264 vs. Trump on 214 (270 EC votes are required for victory): this follows on from swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin being called in Biden's favor.
The path ahead:
Several key states remain to be called including Georgia (16 EC votes), Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), North Carolina (15 EC votes) and Nevada (6 EC votes).
Given the above arithmetic, if Nevada (6 EC votes) was to be called in Biden's favor, this would be enough to secure the presidency for the former Veep; as it stands, NYT tallies Biden at 49.3% and Trump at 48.7% with 86%.
For Trump to win, he would need to pick up all of the remaining swing seats: Georgia (16 EC votes), PAY (20 EC votes), NC (15 EC votes).
Expected timings (via NYT):
Nevada (6 EC): update expected Thursday at noon. Currently Biden 49.3% vs Trump at 48.7%; 86% votes counted.
Arizona (11 EC votes): Update expected after 2100ET Thursday. Currently Biden 50.5% vs. Trump 48.1%.
Georgia (16 EC votes): Counting still ongoing, no guidance on next update. Currently, Biden 49.1% vs Trump 49.6%; 95% of votes counted.
North Carolina (15 EC votes): Counting still ongoing, no guidance on next update. Currently - Biden 48.7%, Trump 50.1%; 95% votes counted.
Pennsylvania (20 EC votes): No guidance on next update, majority expected to be counted by Friday. Currently Biden 48.1% vs. Trump 50.7%; 89% of votes counted.
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Remember, Several states allow mailed-in votes to be accepted after Election Day as long as they were postmarked by Tuesday. That includes Pennsylvania, where ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 can be accepted if they arrive up to three days later.