Everyone Is Waiting for the Selloff. The Pain Trade Is About to Get Very Painful

Time for convexity

Vol has been crushed, bearishness remains stubbornly high and positioning is hardly screaming euphoria. Meanwhile, tech has spent the summer going nowhere, compressing into an increasingly tight range.

With Labor Day approaching, the interesting part is that premium is finally cheap just as the setup becomes more compelling. If the range breaks, options may offer the cleanest way to play what comes next.