When economists are this bearish...
The outlook is so awful...
When macro economists sound the most bearish, it often means the worst is already priced in. Markets don’t wait for confirmation—they front-run fear. Historically, when the consensus gets overwhelmingly negative, the actual downside rarely plays out as expected. Yes, we admit that this process has been a little too rapid even for our taste and trading style - but it does not change the fact that economists and strategists are now very one-sided in their negativity, and that awakes the contrarian in us. Let's have a look at the latest bearish comments on the economy from sell-side over the weekend.