On the eve of the official June 1 start date of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, probabilities are increasing that the first organized tropical system could form later this week.
Remnants of Hurricane Agatha in southern Mexico will play a crucial role in forming the tropical depression that could develop in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday.
"A highly likely solution is for moisture and residual energy from Agatha to give birth to a new storm system on the Atlantic side," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) places formation chances at 30% over the next 48 hours and 70% odds over the next five days.
2 PM EDT Tuesday May 31: A low pressure area is forecast to form near the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. There is a high chance of this system becoming a tropical depression as it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. pic.twitter.com/hCjC8gEn97— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 31, 2022
The first name storm of the season would be called "Alex."
The European weather model points to circulation late Thursday or Friday and could become an organized storm near Florida by the weekend. If the model is correct, South Florida could be hit with heavy rains, high winds, and coastal flooding.
"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatán Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys by the end of the week," NHC said.
... And just what the US Gulf Coast needs: A tropical system, as this year's hurricane season could be active and jeopardize offshore drilling and inland refinery operations, comes when the Biden administration struggles to stomp out high pump prices. It only takes one perfect storm to paralyze the Gulf Coast energy complex.