We told readers earlier this week that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking three tropical disturbances. The most severe tropical threat at the moment is developing in the western Gulf of Mexico.
NHC's 0800 ET update specifies the low-pressure area over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico will begin to move northward on Thursday. It could become a tropical depression by Friday over the western Gulf of Mexico.
"Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday," NHC statement read.
The system has a 90% chance of formation over the next five days. Computer forecast models aren't entirely sure on the track of the system but is likely to strike somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.
Readers may recall this hurricane season could be very active.
Refinitiv estimates around "17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes are expected from June-November. This compares to historical averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, respectively."
The 2021 hurricane season could be off to a busy start.