Tropics Heat Up As New Storm Likely To Form In Caribbean With Sights On US Gulf Coast

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by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Aug 26, 2021 - 12:00 AM

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors three tropical disturbances on Wednesday, with one in the Caribbean Sea and two in the Atlantic Basin.

NHC Miami is closely watching Disturbance 1 over the eastern Caribbean Sea, which could form into a tropical depression by the late weekend as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts show formation chances over the next 48 hours is 40%, but over the next five days, the figure is 80%. 

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

It's still too early in the development of the low-pressure system over the eastern Caribbean Sea to forecast the impacts the system may have next week in the western Gulf Coast. However, The Weather Channel suggests "interests from Louisiana and Texas to Mexico should monitor its progress closely the next several days until the forecast comes into greater focus." 

The Weather Channel models a cone of uncertainty for Disturbance 1 that shows it may hit the Yucatán Peninsula. Last week, Hurricane Grace made landfall near Cancún

The next two storms will be named Ida and Julian. The other disturbances are in the Atlantic Basin and appear not to be a threat at the moment. 

What's unclear is the storm's intensity and trajectory in the coming days when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.