PremiumAI Doom Overstated: Citadel Says Historical Precedent Suggests Slow Adoption, Economic Resilience
Following the AI doomsday reports from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei (a turbulent "rite of passage" for humanity leading to rapid job disruption and a major shock to the economy), and Citrini Research (a hypothetical scenario where rapid AI agent advances create a negative feedback loop, leading to >10% US unemployment, a ~38% S&P 500 drop, and economic contraction by mid-2028), Citadel Securities macro maven, Frank Flight, takes a different tack, pushing back on this dystopian future view.
Specifically, Flight argues that recursive AI progress does not equate to recursive economic adoption; diffusion follows historical S-curves, constrained by costs, infrastructure, regulation, energy limits, and organizational friction.