Using US Shale Boom Cycle To Gauge Where We Are In The AI Bubble

Some Wall Street analysts have begun likening the hyperscalers' surge in artificial-intelligence capex to the early dot-com bubble era, warning that today's AI investment boom could precede a familiar boom-and-bust cycle and an eventual market crash.

We're four days into the new year, and the news cycle is dominated by all things Venezuela. Switching gears, we're diving into a new note from Goldman analysts led by Brian Singer, who believe the learnings derived from the U.S. shale innovation cycle of 2003–20 can provide extremely valuable insight into the catalysts that would drive an inflection from the Appraisal, or "Hopes & Dreams" phase of the AI cycle into the Execution phase.