China's Two-Decade Global Steel Expansion "Has Now Ended"

In Goldman's latest global steel outlook, analysts Aurelia Waltham, Eoin Dinsmore, and others highlight a key inflection point: China's share of global steel production has declined for the first time in over two decades, reversing a multi-decade expansion period. 

"After more than two decades of China increasing its share of global steel production, we believe this structural trend has now come to an end as China's domestic demand continues to falter and barriers to steel exports intensify," Waltham and her team wrote in a note published on Friday morning.

The analysts noted that their global steel supply and demand model forecasted a 3% and 4% year-over-year increase in ex-China steel demand for 2025 and 2026, respectively. As Chinese steel exports are expected to decline, ex-China crude steel production is projected to rise by 3% in 2025 and 8% in 2026.