Goldman Expects Aluminum Spike After Iran Attacks Damages The Two Largest Gulf Producers

On Saturday, both Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) reported drone attacks damaging smelting facilities after hits on Iranian steel infrastructure last week. Neither company (at the time of writing) have confirmed whether supply will be impacted, and until we have clarity on the production impact we can’t determine what level of risk-premium should be priced into aluminum on tomorrow’s Asia open, but Goldman commodity desk view is if we were to lose 600k MT, price should rally by 5-7% and prompt vol by 5%.