Goldman Now Sees Strait of Hormuz Closure Lasting 21 Days

One week ago, Goldman published its first post-war oil price assessment, raising its average Q2 oil price forecast for Brent by $10 to $76/bbl (vs. $66 prior) and by $9 for WTI to $71 (vs. $62), while also nudging up its Brent/WTI year-end/Q4 2026 forecasts to $66/62 (vs. $60/56 prior) and for 2027 to $70/66 (vs. $65/61 prior) as an assumed Q2 overshoot in Hormuz exports partly replenishes OECD stocks. The anchor of the Goldman forecast was that Strait of Hormuz oil exports "remain flat at current levels (around 15% of normal) for an additional 5 days before gradually recovering to 70% in the next 2 weeks and then to 100% in the subsequent 2 weeks."