How Long Before The World Hits Crude Oil Operational Minimum: JPMorgan Does The Math

One week ago, we first presented our subscribers with a striking map created by JPMorgan's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva, which showed the delayed physical commodity shockwave emerging from the Iran war that would slowly - or very fast for some demand-destroying Asian countries - spread around the globe as oil/LNG carrying ships that departed the gulf weeks ago reach their destinations, with no future deliveries in tow. As Kaneva explained it, "much like during COVID, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously—a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories." 

Fast forward one week, when overnight JPM's commodity expert published the next must-read report in the unfolding energy crisis series (available to pro subs), this one looking at the obvious next step: once new supplies end, how long will global energy reserves and buffers last before they are drained.