Key China Copper Gauge Flashes Warning As Mysteel Global Warns Metal Is "Sold Out Everywhere"

Deglobalization, decades of underinvestment in mining, rising copper demand tied to the AI data center buildout, and surging US stockpiling ahead of potential import tariffs have pushed copper prices to record highs, approaching $15,000 a ton in London.

The resulting supply squeeze is forcing Chinese buyers to compete more aggressively for physical metal, driving the Yangshan premium, which measures what importers pay above London benchmark prices, to its highest level on record, Bloomberg reports.

The Yangshan premium is the extra amount Chinese buyers pay above the London Metal Exchange benchmark to secure physical imported copper. That metric topped $200 a ton, according to Fastmarkets data going back to 2017.

Xiao Chuankang, a copper analyst at Shanghai-based commodities consultancy Mysteel Global, was quoted by the outlet as saying that the industrial metal is "sold out everywhere" and "the premium will remain elevated due to supply scarcity."

Separately, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, warned that copper prices might have peaked for the year if the AI trading-theme correction accelerates to the downside, weighing on critical material inputs for data centers and the power grid. He nevertheless expects copper to gain about 10% over the next year, with volatility along the way.

Hansen also sees gold reaching $4,500 an ounce by year-end and $5,000 to $5,500 next year, supported by continued central-bank buying.