Scarcity Warnings In Physical World Send Commodities To 14-Year High, Threatening Stock Rally

Readers are familiar by now with the broad-based commodity rally, with energy, agricultural products and metals moving sharply higher as former Goldman Sachs commodities head Jeff Currie warned this summer of growing scarcity in the physical economy.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has climbed to levels last seen in 2012...

... while the Quantix Commodity Index has hit a new record high.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White is out with a new note this morning warning that the commodity rally is threatening to squeeze corporate margins and household spending, raising questions about how long stocks can withstand an inflation shock spreading well beyond oil.

White wrote:

Stocks are reacting negatively to the inflation and growth risks from commodities, which have just reached levels not seen since 2012.

Commodities are rallying, but this is no longer principally an oil story. The rally is instead broadening out. Since the beginning of August, not only are energy prices rising, such as European gas (up 34%), or gasoline (+22%), metal prices are also rising (zinc, copper), as well as precious metals (silver, platinum, gold), and softs, such as sugar, cocoa and corn.

He added:

Only a handful of the main commodities traded on futures markets (eg hogs, cattle, nickel and orange juice) are down since Aug. 1.

The energy shock affects input costs for everything from manufacturing to food production. The hobbling of refinery capacity from the Iran war has led to elevated prices for products such diesel and gasoline, inflaming transport costs.

Soft commodity prices are being further pressured by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, especially in the Black Sea region, as well as concerns about a particularly potent El Nino this year and next.

For equity bulls, White warned that soaring commodity prices raise questions about how long stocks can withstand an inflation shock broadening across the commodity complex. 

He continued on that thought:

The recent rally in raw materials has taken the Bloomberg Commodity Index to near 15-year highs. On a 10-year annualised basis, returns recently reached a level they have only once eclipsed, in 2008, since the mega-commodity rally of the 1970s.

But as we can see from the chart above, when commodity prices are high, such as in the 1970s or early 2010s, stock prices falter. Equivalently, stocks tend to enjoy their best periods when commodities are historically on the low side.

The current environment of rising stock and commodity returns looks somewhat of an anomaly. Stocks are slipping today, but if commodity prices stay bid - and there are many reasons for them to do just that - the equity market has more downside ahead. (Tatiana's point on higher energy prices boosting earnings won't translate into higher stock prices if the rest of the economy is suffering from broad-based commodity inflation.)

The Nasdaq 100's ratio to the Quantix Commodity Total Return Index has pointed to this summer's renewed commodity outperformance as traders price in scarcity. 

As we've pointed out in the metals space, copper is at an all-time high, north of $14,700, and iron ore might have found a bottom, with prices in Singapore around $100 a ton. On the critical materials side, we've outlined the continued tightening of supplies from China to the West, as seen last week in a Reuters report. We've also identified miners that are poised to break China's "quasi-monopolistic" grip on critical materials.