Six-Month Low In Coffee Futs Signals Potential Relief After Beans On Amazon Surge

Tracking a single brand of dark-roast arabica beans on Amazon via the price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel shows that a 2.2-pound bag has nearly doubled in price since August.

For American consumers, paying roughly twice as much for the same bag of coffee beans in just six months is a price shock, even if it is still cheaper than visiting Starbucks daily.

There may finally be some relief in sight. Arabica coffee futures have fallen to a six-month low, raising some hopes that bean prices may have topped out for now.

The most-active New York contract slid to a six-month low on Thursday, falling as much as 2.3% to about $3.10 a pound.

Bloomberg reports this decline was driven by a sharp rebound in exchange inventories, with coffee deliveries doubling over the past two weeks. That restocking has eased fears over near-term supply tightness that previously sent prices surging to nearly $4.5 a pound in 2025.

There is more good news: Favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s top coffee exporter, suggests more supply is near for the next harvest season.

Analysts at investment bank Itaú BBA told clients that traders are closely monitoring weather conditions in Brazil, where forecasts for continued, crop-friendly rains could further improve supply outlooks. If those rains materialize, speculative traders may further unwind bullish positions, adding to the downward pressure on coffee futures.