UBS: "Copper Is The Commodity Everyone Wants To Own"
Goldman's "circular melt-up" call and its recent upgrade to the 2026 London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price forecast have so far proven correct, as the industrial metal surged above $13,000 a ton with traders continuing to price in tighter global supply and a broader risk-on mood across metals.
Three-month LME copper futures rose as much as 3.1% to a record $13,387.50, surpassing the previous record high set just a day earlier. The move is driven by the risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on refined copper, prompting a multi-month surge in US inventory and draining supplies from major global markets.
"Copper extended its rally on Tuesday, with prices surging to a record $13,187 per ton, fuelled by a rush to ship the metal to the US amid tariff uncertainty and persistent supply disruptions," UBS analyst Aditi Samajpati wrote in a brief note to clients earlier.
Samajpati continued, "The US premium has driven global inventory imbalances, with US stockpiles rising while the rest of the world faces tightening supplies. Speculative trading intensified as investors bet on further gains, supported by the metal's critical role in energy transition and ongoing mine setbacks in Chile, Indonesia, and Congo."
She added, "The rally is also part of a broader upswing in metals, with gold, silver, and platinum hitting new highs."
In a separate note, UBS analyst Dan Major noted, "Net speculative positioning is elevated, and it is well known that copper is the commodity everyone wants to own."
The prospect of US import curbs, combined with strong demand due to copper's role in high-growth sectors such as data center buildouts and power grid upgrades, fueled a wave of optimistic calls late in 2025.
"Inventories used to act as a buffer, but now they're locked in the US," Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures Co., recently told Bloomberg. "So the buffer is gone and everyone will have to scramble."
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"The logic behind this rally remains," said Li. "We need to track the trend and not get fixated on absolute price levels."