Goldman Explains Why Oil Refuses To Rise Despite Continued Hormuz Closure

In his latest weekly Oil Analyst note (available here for pro subs), Goldman's commodity strategist Daan Struyven asks why have spot Brent futures fallen 22% from the late March peak despite still very low flows through Hormuz? He answers that in addition to significant buffers (high crude inventories before the Iran war, rapid SPR releases, and Americas supply beats), he has identified two demand-related drivers.

Driver 1: Physical and financial destocking. Large uncertainty and fears of escalation in March boosted financial and physical restocking demand, when retail oil sales surged in several economies.