Output per worker in data processing is up 27% in a year; at general merchandise stores it is down 11.8%. So far, the AI dividend has reached just 12 of 64 US industries.

The PPI vs CPI gap is the widest since 2022, and history says record profit margins are in the crosshairs...

Congress will pass the worst of both parties' spending... and the dollar will tank...

After realizing Thursday's straddle "nearly 8x over to the downside", the S&P now prices a 1.45% move for payrolls, the highest since March. The labor data, meanwhile, looks fine.

"This decade looks set to be the worst decade for growth in household incomes on record. No amount of temporary cost of living packages will fix that. We need a stronger economy."

The numbers are particularly brutal...

Overall, this was a stellar JOLTS report, with strength in both openings, hires and quits, and shows that after some modest weakness in the middle part of of 2026, US labor market is now once again recovering solidly, which could translate into another big beat in this Friday jobs report.

Overall, the data points to solid factory demand continuing into the fall...

The week ahead is a big one in the US and with it for global markets, with tomorrow’s midterm elections and Friday’s October jobs report the obvious highlights, alongside the ISM surveys and Wednesday’s Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

...there is no rational theory of economics that says you can marry 17% of GDP tax policy with 21% of GDP spending policy on a permanent basis and expect anything other than a long-term debt calamity...

"Unacceptable to me..."

"The Negative Outlook reflects a deterioration since our August 2026 review comprising..."

...after the departure of prominent partners and their business relationships.

Chump change...

They reported a $31.5 million net loss in 2025, followed by another $23.1 million loss during the first half of 2026...

Over the past year, the AI stock boom quietly added about 0.25% of GDP to US consumer spending. Goldman's Hatzius says that tailwind has now peaked, and in his downside case it flips to a 0.5pp drag.

Ottawa imposed counter-tariffs on $28 billion of American imports on Sept. 8 in response to the United States' tariffs on Canada in August.

The output readings from the survey are consistent with GDP growing at a 5% annualized rate after a 4% expansion was signalled for the third quarter...

"AI may be playing a part, but it's unlikely to be the whole story." 

"The news flow has moved away from street protests and back to the roots of the budget. The government isn't finding any takers for its budget proposals..."