"With all daily survey components improving, the observed retail sales aggregate has hooked up."

We now have a combustible brew, the likes of which haven't been seen since the time when guillotines were still used to dispense mob justice.

"… but history does tend to rhyme..." 

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week; In terms of US data, focus will be on May retail sales.

America’s biggest economies aren’t always its strongest...

Step aside China: the global impulse is now overwhelmingly a US story, or rather AI story, accounting for +2.6% of GDP, or roughly $800bn of additional credit over the past year.

Regardless of your view on how much lower oil can fall, the key part is the shift in distributions and the reduction in tails for materially higher prices. This has implications for broader assets and Central Bank paths...

Norway ranks as the world’s most prosperous country in 2026, leading a Nordic-heavy top 10...

From technocrats to central planners, the temptation to engineer society persists. Adam Smith saw the dangers clearly.

The modest drop in year-ahead expectations took place as 1-year gas inflation expectations extended its recent decline, sliding to 4.96% in May from 5.11% in April and from 9.42% in March, which had been the highest reading since March 2022.

Those seeking housing as shelter cannot compete with wealthy households and entities seeking places to park credit-generated capital for income and/or appreciation.

“Prices aren’t soaring like they were five years ago–high gas prices and the rising cost of living overall is trickling down to the housing market, making buyers much less likely to bid prices up."

"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries" 

middle-income households were described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” and low-income consumers showed greater financial strain.

“The acceleration of headline and core inflation in May cements the case for a 25 basis-point rate increase from the ECB next week."

Bizarro data reporting continues: April saw the biggest monthly increase in professional and business services by a huge margin, even as quits collapsed to a 6 year low. 

...disappointing growth and deteriorating affordability are not market failures; they are the predictable result of layering net zero interventionism on top of already inflationary, deficit-driven macro policy.

the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday, as well as other job-related reports including ADP and JOLTS. We also get mfg and services ISMs. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week

...high energy prices "will cause a tremendous amount of demand destruction and a recession that I think is coming anyway..."

"The recent resilience in spending largely reflects an outsized boost from OBBBA-related tax cuts, and expect that spending headwinds from higher inflation will weigh on spending growth for the rest of the year."