economics


'Soft' Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations

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..higher than the highest analyst's expectation.


UK Locks In Critical Minerals Deal With Kazakhstan To Cut Reliance On China

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Meanwhile rare earth shortages worsen in US aerospace, chips despite trade truce...


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Before the 2024 election, we interviewed an analyst who was calling for Democratic outperformance despite the Polymarket forecast showing an insanely close race.

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In Critical Minerals, US Transitions From Lender To Market-Maker

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A 13-page report from FTI Consulting is providing some insight on how the U.S. government has rewritten the rules for critical minerals


EU Says Trump's Tariff Workaround Violates Trade Deal

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EU said “we have no other option” but to delay the approval process to seek clarity on the situation. 


What Causes Stagflation?

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Increased money supply sparks an exchange of nothing for something. This diverts resources from wealth-generators to non-wealth generators. Consequently, this weakens the wealth-formation process and, in turn, weakens economic growth...



Key Events This Week: PPI, Iran Talks, Nvidia Earnings, Fed Speakers Galore And State Of The Union

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Another very busy week ahead...


Macron's India Trip Exposes EU Tech Overreach And Policy Failures

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From February 17 to 19, France’s President Emmanuel Macron visited India - the newly discovered object of European diplomatic desire...


Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Grows At 1.4%, Half Expected Pace, As Government Shutdown Slams Growth

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The BEA reported that the US economy grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, the slowest growth since the tariff shock of Q1 2025; this was the direct result of the government slowdown subtracting 0.9% from GDP in Q4. 


80% Plunge In Immigration Is Reshaping Labor Market Math, But AI Wildcard Looms: Goldman

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Labor demand still looks "shaky"...


US Industrial Production Surged In January

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...as ISM Manufacturing survey mysteriously exploded higher.


Impoverishment Of Spaniards Is The Result Of Years Of Interventionist Policies

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Inflation, bloating GDP with public spending and immigration and hidden unemployment are the ingredients of the so-called “economic miracle” of the Sánchez administration...


China's Debt Model Creates Danger Of Stagnation

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The latest social financing figures from China show an economy that is increasingly relying on government debt while private demand for credit remains weak...


Warsh Likes It Hot, And Will Move The Fed's Inflation Target To 2.5-3.5%

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faced with the double jeopardy of declining labor demand or declining labor supply, the Fed will turn a blind eye to this structural uplift in wage inflation. It will do this by de facto moving its inflation target to 2.5-3.5 percent


CPI Preview: "Hawkish Print More Likely Than Dovish Print"

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"The market is expressing a view that the macro data is going to turn softer and is adding duration ahead of the next batch of risk events"


Historic Negative Jobs Revisions: 1 Million Fewer Jobs Added In 2025, Only 15,000 Avg Jobs Monthly

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The US labor market was even worse than the biggest skeptics expected.


"One Shouldn't Panic" At How Bad The January Jobs Report Will Be

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"The rather dire picture of the labor market will pressure the Fed to lower interest rates...  In all, we expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points this year."


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Consumer Credit Smashes All Estimates As Monthly Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Surges By Most In 2 Years

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Meanwhhile, the average credit card APR has gone up in the past 2.5 years despite 1.75% in rate cuts by the Fed. 


January US Jobs Report Rescheduled For February 11

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The January employment report has been rescheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 11, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


No Global Recession In 2026, But Period Of Poor Growth Continues

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The IMF has not admitted its mistake in assuming stagnation and elevated inflation due to tariffs and prefers to explain the massive upgrades justifying them on lower policy rates, ongoing fiscal support, and high-tech investment...


US Services Sector Surveys Signal Solid Growth In January, But...

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...higher prices, lower new orders, and weaker employment are not helping sentiment.