...most notable in the investment and production of machinery and equipment, linked in many cases to rising AI-related spend.

"the economic impact should be nearly offset by the effects of higher equity prices, narrower credit spreads, and a weaker dollar, resulting in only a 0.1pp net hit to 2026 GDP growth"

today's welcome "miss" in core PCE is likely not due to lower prices but due to spreadsheet changes and rebenchmarking. 

"Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists..."

It's very busy week ahead with US payrolls (Friday) and PCE (Wednesday) as the blockbuster releases. The US ISM (Thursday) will attract outsized attention given the spectacular beat on the S&P PMI last week that sent 10yr US yields +15.2bps higher on the day.

Overall, one in five renter households either paid rent late or missed a payment in 2025...

Wall Street almost always starts a year too optimistically and spends the next 24 months cutting...

What a disaster...

The cost paid in stagnant growth and diminished prosperity for its citizens has been dear. 

Europe is becoming a glaring case study in how globalist leaders can destroy an entire automotive... 

...and these are the 'smartest guys in the room...'?

According to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, the country’s special economic boom triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already faded. 

...despite his achievements (or perhaps due to them), he has been reviled and attacked by the Left as either treasonous or insane or cruel or whatever...

The state-led monetary and fiscal regime surpassed all its limits many years ago, but some still believed that it could all be disguised by central banks' quantitative easing. They were wrong...

The jubilation over the temporary increase in orders in German industry has already faded: According to figures from the German Engineering Federation VDMA, the current year will also turn into a bitter disappointment. Without an ideological change of course, the German economy will not be able to overcome the recession.

It is a bitter irony for Germany’s badly weakened chancellor: Greece, once the notorious sinner of the euro crisis, is now reminding its former German teacher of the importance of fiscal discipline.

Volkswagen’s austerity program now seems to be updated almost weekly... What we are witnessing is not corporate consolidation, but the partial collapse of Germany’s automakers...

Investors are contending with higher oil prices, inflation pressures, and growing government borrowing needs.

Nestle said it was "committed to taking all necessary steps to protect its rights and ensure continuity of business operations in the interests of all stakeholders, particularly its employees".

A U.S. Census Bureau study found a five-point drop in initial employment and a 13% earnings decline among the most exposed majors...