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Chicago PMI Plummets Near COVID Lows As Small Biz/CEO Confidence Soars

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 30, 2024 - 02:55 PM

MNI's Chicago PMI survey plunged back near COVID lockdown lows in December, falling to a very contraction-y 36.9 (below the lowest analyst estimate of 40)...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was uniformly ugly...

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

  • New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

  • Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

This tumble in survey sentiment fits with the overall slump in 'soft' data since Trump was elected...

Source: Bloomberg

...which is odd given the small business and CEO - large business - confidence has exploded higher since his election)...

Source: Bloomberg

Does make one wonder just who the local Fed surveys are asking?

Source: Bloomberg

Partisan PMIs?

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