Initial Jobless Claims 'Ticked Up' Last Week, According To Goldman's Model

In the absence of the BLS payrolls data due to the government shutdown, traders are feeling around in the darkish void for data on the labor market. So far this week it has not been pretty with the weakness seen by Challenger Grey:

So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest YTD since 2020: