Key Events This Week: Midterms, Jobs, Earnings, Central Banks And More

Welcome to the first business day of November, and as DB's Jim Reid writes in his Morning Reid note, the week ahead is a big one in the US and with it for global markets, with tomorrow’s midterm elections and Friday’s October jobs report the obvious highlights, alongside the ISM surveys and Wednesday’s Treasury quarterly refunding announcement. Elsewhere, central-bank decisions are due in Australia tomorrow, Sweden on Wednesday, and the UK and Norway on Thursday, while China’s private PMIs, German activity data and Japanese wages will also be in focus. Earnings remain busy too, with Apple and Palantir today, AMD tomorrow, and ARM and a broader slate later in the week. 

Looking at more depth at the week ahead, tomorrow’s midterms will determine control of Congress for the final two years of President Trump’s term. Polling suggests Democrats are favored to gain the three seats needed for a House majority, while the Senate remains a much closer contest and the outcome in either chamber could take several days to become clear if the margins are tight. Polymarket currently put the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate at 74.0%. Well renowned pollster Nate Silver currently suggests a 75% probability. 

From a near-term fiscal perspective, the lame-duck session after the election could prove at least as consequential as the composition of the new Congress according to DB economists, with government funding expiring on December 11 and Republicans likely to seek a reconciliation bill that could include additional defence spending and potentially address the debt limit. Markets will also look to see what happens to the Iranian conflict in the days after midterms. The concern is clearly that energy prices become less of a pressing political issue once the vote is out the way, allowing for more aggressive action in and around Iran. For this morning though, Brent is -3.47% lower after Axios reported that Trump favours giving diplomacy longer to work, rather than a policy of imminent strikes. This was apparently relayed in a call to Israeli PM Netanyahu who was said to be concerned by this news. 

Friday’s October employment report is the main US data release. Economists expect headline payrolls to rise by +65k, up from +29k in September, with private payrolls also increasing by +60k after +46k. They expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, hours worked to stay at 34.4 and average hourly earnings growth to rebound to +0.3% MoM from +0.1%. On those forecasts, their payroll-based proxy for nominal compensation growth would remain at 4.2% YoY, which would still be consistent with solid consumer spending growth. 

There are several labor-market indicators ahead of Friday. Tomorrow’s September JOLTS report will provide the latest read on hiring, quits and layoffs, which have been relatively stable over the past year. On Wednesday, DB economists expect ADP private employment growth of +75k, down from +90k previously. Given the correlation between ADP and nonfarm payroll growth, that release could have an important bearing on expectations heading into Friday. 

The business surveys will be another focus. DB economists expect today’s October manufacturing ISM to rise to 54.8 from 54.5, followed by an increase in the services ISM to 55.1 from 54.9 on Wednesday. Watch out for the prices paid component as well. These surveys should also offer a useful comparison with the much weaker picture from consumers: economists expect Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan sentiment index to fall to 45.7 from 48.0 in October. Thursday also brings Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, while the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is due today. 

The data will be viewed against the backdrop of last week’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed left rates unchanged but Chair Warsh reiterated that further tightening is likely to be needed. Barring meaningful downside surprises this week, economists think the labor-market data should reinforce expectations of another rate hike at the December 9 meeting. There is also plenty of Fedspeak this week, with New York Fed President Williams’ moderated discussion on Friday among the more notable appearances. On the fiscal side, Wednesday’s Treasury quarterly refunding announcement will be another important event for rates markets. 

Moving to Europe, the main events are central-bank decisions. The Riksbank announces on Wednesday, followed by the BoE and Norges Bank on Thursday. Market probabilities for a hike are 70.4%, 95.6% and 4.4% respectively. Germany has a run of September activity data, beginning with retail sales today, followed by factory orders on Thursday and industrial production on Friday. Inflation releases include Switzerland tomorrow, the Eurozone on Wednesday and Sweden on Thursday. 

In Asia, China’s October private services PMI on Wednesday follows manufacturing earlier today and the official ones over the weekend. Japan’s September labour cash earnings are out on Thursday, while the BoJ publishes the minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday. In Australia, the RBA decision is tomorrow where there is an 82% probability of a hike. 

Finally, earnings remain busy. Apple and Palantir report today, followed by AMD and Arista Networks tomorrow, and ARM, Qualcomm, McDonald’s, Novo Nordisk and Uber on Wednesday. Thursday’s slate includes Toyota, Sony, Deutsche Telekom, Rheinmetall and Nintendo, while Moderna and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are among those reporting on Friday.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday November 2

• Data: US October ISM index, September construction spending, China October RatingDog manufacturing PMI, Germany September retail sales, Italy October new car registrations, budget balance, manufacturing PMI, Canada October manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Senior loan officer opinion survey, Fed's Goolsbee speaks, ECB's Vujcic, Makhlouf, Escriva, Moulin and Radev speak
• Earnings: Apple, Palantir, Vertex, Marriott, Estee Lauder, Ryanair
• Auctions: US Treasury quarterly borrowing estimates

Tuesday November 3

• Data: US September JOLTS report, factory orders, October total vehicle sales, Japan October monetary base, France September budget balance, New Zealand Q3 labour force survey, Switzerland October CPI
• Central banks: RBA decision, ECB's Radev, Moulin, Kocher, Dolenc, Nagel, Sleijpen and Escriva speak, BoC’s Macklem and Rogers speak
• Earnings: AMD, Amgen, Arista Networks, Shopify, Pfizer, Eaton, Marathon Petroleum, Intesa Sanpaolo, Booking, Energy Transfer, Ferrari, Apollo, Bayer, Keurig Dr Pepper, Block
• Other: UK Chancellor Healey and Treasury ministerial team answer oral questions in the House of Commons

Wednesday November 4 

• Data: US October ISM services, ADP report, September trade balance, China October RatingDog services PMI, Italy October services PMI, UK October official reserves changes, Eurozone October CPI, Canada September international merchandise trade, October services PMI
• Central banks: Riksbank decision, ECB's Lane and Moulin speak, BoJ minutes of the September meeting
• Earnings: ARM, QUALCOMM, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Uber, CVS Health, McKesson, Datadog, Emerson Electric, AppLovin, MercadoLibre, Coherent, BMW, Expedia, Leonardo, Kraft Heinz, Fair Isaac, Vonovia
• Auctions: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

Thursday November 5

• Data: US Q3 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, initial jobless claims, UK October new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan September labor cash earnings, Germany September factory orders, October construction PMI, France September industrial production, Italy September retail sales, Eurozone September PPI, Sweden October CPI 
• Central banks: BoE decision, Norges bank decision, Fed's Hammack and Barkin speak, ECB's Lagarde, Dolenc, Cipollone, Schnabel, Moulin, Schnabel, Zigman and Nagel speak
• Earnings: Toyota Motor, Sony, Deutsche Telekom, Parker-Hannifin, Cloudflare, Airbnb, National Grid, Lumentum, DHL, Cummins, Nintendo, Rheinmetall, Atlassian, AP Moller - Maersk, ArcelorMittal, Commerzbank, Legrand, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Kimberly-Clark, Verisk Analytics, Unity Software

Friday November 6

• Data: US October jobs report, November University of Michigan survey, September consumer credit, Germany September industrial production, France September current account balance, trade balance, Q3 wages, Eurozone September retail sales, Canada October labour force survey
• Central banks: Fed's Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman speak, ECB’s Lane speaks, BoE’s Pill speaks
• Earnings: Moderna, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Constellation Software

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with President Goolsbee on Monday, Presidents Hammack, Barkin, and Logan on Thursday, and Presidents Williams and Musalem and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on Friday.

Monday, November 2

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 56.0, last 56.0)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 54.5, consensus 54.6, last 54.5): We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 54.5 in October, reflecting mixed regional manufacturing surveys. Our manufacturing survey tracker was roughly unchanged in October (+0.1pt to 56.0).
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%)
• 11:15 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will moderate a Q&A with BIS deputy general manager Andréa M. Maechler at the Chicago Fed Financial Markets Group Fall Conference. On September 29, Goolsbee said that “if we are going to start getting permanent or very persistent supply shocks… we have to consider responding to those persistent shocks.”

Tuesday, November 3

• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (GS 7,200k, consensus 7,100k, last 7,079k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings edged up slightly to 7.2mn in September based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, October (GS 15.7mn, consensus 15.9mn, last 16.0mn)

Wednesday, November 4

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, October (GS +70k, consensus +67k, last +90k)
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$108.0bn, consensus -$108.0bn, last -$105.6bn)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, October final (consensus 57.9, last 57.9)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, October (GS 54.9, consensus 54.9, last 54.9): We estimate that the ISM services index was unchanged at 54.9 in October, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.4pt to 54.4), offset by downward pressure from convergence toward the level implied by other services surveys (which the ISM index is above).

Thursday, November 5

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.7%, last +1.4%); Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.2%); 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 31 (GS 195k, consensus 195k, last 194k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 24 (consensus 1,710k, last 1,701k)
• 08:50 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak on stablecoins and safe haven currencies at the “SNB and Its Watchers” conference in Zurich. Speech text and Q&A are expected. Hammack was one of two dissenters in favor of a hike at last week’s FOMC meeting and said on October 12 that “trimming the sails through frequent smaller adjustments reduces the risks of being blown far off course, of an inflationary mindset taking hold, and of taking longer to reach the destination.”
• 09:10 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a moderated Q&A at the 2026 CFO Summit hosted by the Richmond and Atlanta Feds in Charlotte. Q&A is expected. Barkin, in reference to the FOMC decision last week, said on October 30 “I think gradual [adjustments] make sense when you’re not much behind the curve, where you want time to learn… and we haven’t seen much change since September.”
• 7:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a discussion on AI and the workforce. On October 30, Logan stated, “Skipping a meeting does not change the monetary policy destination… It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases. After that, it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments to determine what further action may be appropriate.”

Friday, November 6

• 04:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion organized by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. Q&A is expected. On October 13, Williams said, “I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike. I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more.”
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +75k, consensus +62k, last +29k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +70k, consensus +58k, last +46k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%); We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in October, reflecting a solid signal from alternative data. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting neutral calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.2% in October, but with risks skewed to the downside reflecting potential convergence to the lower level implied by continuing claims.
• 09:10 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter): St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at an event at Greater St. Louis, Inc. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On October 30, Musalem said that he judges that “additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon.”

Source: DB, Goldman