November Jobs Preview: "The Asymmetry Is Towards A Negative Surprise"

After a two and a half month BLS hiatus, Novemberʼs delayed employment report, due Tuesday at 8:330a, will incorporate October payrolls, although Octoberʼs unemployment rate will be absent after the government shutdown halted household survey collection. In terms of expectations, there is no consensus for the October report. For November, analysts expect 50k jobs to be added to the economy, down from 119k in September, although Fed Chair Powell recently warned that Bureau of Labor Statistics data may be overstating job growth by around 60k per month (something we first said two years ago). The November unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.5%, up 0.1% versus September, and in line with the Fedʼs median year-end projection of 4.5% from its Summary of Economic Projections.

Labor-market indicators have been mixed. The Chicago Fed unemployment rate estimate has edged higher from the September BLS rate, while ADP data was mixed, showing job gains in October and losses in November. Meanwhile, the RevelioLabs NFP proxy saw job losses in both October and November. Initial jobless claims fell in the November reference window compared with the September and October survey periods, with four-week averages trending lower since September. JOLTS data showed improvement from late summer into October. As Newsquawk notes, during the latest Fed presser, Powell struck a dovish tone at the press conference, appearing more concerned about the labor side of the mandate than inflation. Money markets are pricing in two additional 25bps rate cuts in 2026, more than the Fedʼs median projection of one, though projections vary widely; many banks - such as Goldman - expect 3 rate cuts.