October Jobs Preview And How To Trade It: A Labor "Bounce" Walks Into An AI Crash

The October jobs report is out Friday, Nov 6 at 8:30am ET.

A month ago, our September jobs preview told readers to "beware a bond squeeze as August seasonals reverse." Well, they reversed: August was revised down to 133K, and September printed a dismal 29K, below all estimates, while July was revised negative (again). Ten-year yields tumbled and the record Treasury shorts got squeezed, just as we said they would, and the 10Y has since drifted as low as 4.80%. That same afternoon we tweeted the only sane read of the two-month mess:

Expectations