"One Shouldn't Panic" At How Bad The January Jobs Report Will Be

As discussed earlier, the focus in Wednesday's delayed jobs report for January will not be on the actual monthly change in January jobs but rather on the massive negative cumulative revisions for the past two years which will likely eliminate over 1 million jobs as of Dec 2025. Furthermore, Kevin Hassett already told CNBC viewers on Monday to "expect slightly smaller job numbers" and that "one shouldn't panic" if the labor data comes in weak... guaranteeing the the job print will come in weak (it will be blamed on AI, the birth/death model finally being revised, seasonal adjustments, the lack of immigration, and so on). Hassett said the results may not be a sign of broader trouble, explaining the potentially smaller numbers as a combination of a "productivity boom" and "a pretty big decline in the labor force because of illegals leaving the country."

The number will be so bad, even Trump's acerbic senior trade counselor, Peter Navarro, pushed the message on Tuesday and emphasized the immigration angle during a Fox Business appearance. "We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like," he said, suggesting that 50,000 jobs should be considered enough to keep up with population growth. Wall Street will "have to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market," he added.